It’s a truly wonderful time of year folks. The smell of hot piss and boiling homeless flesh fades out of NYC and gives way to that crisp Fall air that can only mean one thing – College Football is Bach.
2 weeks from tomorrow we officially begin the 2019-20 CFB season with Florida v. Miami and that means now is the time to pick your spots, identify good value, and stuff your open bets page to the gills with futures. We’re gonna go team o/u into conference champs into the Heisman and the Natty so buckle up and let’s make some coin. Also, these are all 1 unit plays unless otherwise noted.
- Washington State o8 wins
- Replacing a Quarterback with Gardner Minshew’s production is no small task, but if anyone is up for it it’s Mike Leach. They brought in transfer QB Gage Gubrud (what a name) with the hopes that he will beat out the 2 senior QBs vying for the starting job and that in conjunction with returning 7/8 of their top pass catchers from last season, the Cougs and Mike Leach’s air raid offense should still be a force in the PAC-12 North. They also return 4 starters on an offensive line that only allowed 1 sack every 52 dropbacks.Oregon and Utah are getting all the hype in the PAC-12 this year and it is easy to forget just how impressive the Cougs looked at times last year. Hammer the o8 and look for a season comparable to last year
- UCF u9.5 wins
- Only 2 years removed from the best National Championship run these eyes have ever seen, I think the jig is officially up for UCF. Losing 5 defensive starters is tough, almost losing your leg is tougher. Mckenzie Milton will not play this year after leading the Knights on this storybookesque run and is legitimately lucky he didn’t lose his leg after a catastrophic injury. The Knights will still compete and most likely finish the season with 8-9 wins, so while I don’t see them completely reverting back into a pumpkin when the clock strikes midnight I just don’t see a team ready to compete at the highest level.
- North Texas o7.5 wins
- North Texas might be the most intriguing team in College Football this year. Coach Seth Littrell has taken the Mean Green to 3 bowl games in 3 years and reportedly turned down multiple vacant HC positions in the BIG 12 and with other more notable progrums. The defense is going to be a concern but with 23 3 star recruits in this years class and the return of wunderkind QB Mason Fine who holds just about every record in the Mean Green book (Fine holds the record for single season passing yardage, touchdowns, and completions at UNT), I think the Mean Green will threaten for the C-USA chip. S&P+ projects them at 7.9 wins and they seem well poised to build on a successful 2018 campaign.
- Buffalo o6 wins (2 UNITS)
- The disrespect. After a stellar 10-4 record last year, the Bulls lose my sweet baby Tyree Jackson who will usurp Josh Allen as the starter in Buffalo before all is said and done but I digress. With talk of Buffalo possibly looking to jump ship from the best conference in college sports to the AAC, they will need an impressive season to show that last year’s success wasn’t a fluke and that coach Lance Leipold truly does have the progrum trending in the correct direction. The MAC lacks nothing in the parity department as we rarely see teams repeat and Buffalo actually hasn’t ever made back to back bowl games, but this ain’t your daddy’s Buffalo and this is a talented team that despite the loss of Tyree Jackson still returns a ton of talent. While they may not get to double digit victories, I think betting them to be bowl eligible is a safe move as they have a TON to play for this year.
- App State o9 wins
- Last year App State was the class of the Fun Belt and right up there with Fresno and UCF as one of the most talented G5 squads in the country. After a 4 year run that frankly can be described as nothing short of dominant in the conference Head Coach Scott Satterfield is off to brighter pastures and Eliah Drinkwitz takes over a team that returns a ton of production. Drinkwitz’ offensive scheme at NC State actually pretty closely resembles Satterfield’s system and places a large emphasis on ball control through quick strike efficient passing. The hope is that Drinkwitz will slide in and provide enough continuity to maintain the status quo and keep App State atop the Sun Belt rankings and hopefully somewhere between 20-30 in the country. With an S&P+ win projection of 9.8, I feel that things would need to go very wrong for the Mountaineers to not cover the 9 wins.
- Army o10 wins
- I’ll be honest, I don’t have fancy stats and reasoning to back this one up, though I’m sure I could find some after a shockingly good year from Army last year. The Army Black Knights are the reason I love this game. I went to Air Force @ Army with a family friend who played for Army and brings an RV out for the tailgate and the whole 9 as a kid and I was hooked. That feeling of amazement as a shithead 9 year old at an Army football game is the dragon I have been chasing for 14 years now and I throw this bet in as a fan every year. Also if you don’t bet the Army wins over, I heard you’re a terrorist who doesn’t support the troops and is considering defecting to ISIS. Balls in your court.
- Washington State +700 to win the PAC-12
- See above. Like I said, everyone loves Oregon and Utah and seems to be writing off one of the most innovative coaching minds in the country. At that value I simply can’t resist and you shouldn’t either.
- North Texas +300 to win CUSA (2 UNITS)
- I guess I might be noticing a recurring theme here. CUSA is wide open this year and I’d say North Texas, UAB, and I’ve even heard some of my colleagues at this fine establishment toss out the idea of Rice as a contender in the CUSA West (lookin at you Corn Boy Jack.) Seeing as the conference is going to be pretty close and honestly is there for the taking right now, North Texas in year 4 Seth Littrell seems primed to take home their first ever conference title at 3 to 1 odds – Doesn’t suck!
- Alabama -200 to win SEC
- This may not be a sexy pick, but it is a smart pick. I do not feel the need to explain why betting Bama at 1 to 2 odds is actually tremendous value. While I can actually also see value in Georgia at +250, Bama still feels like the smart pick to me and I’ll have trouble picking against them until they give me a reason to.
- Jake Fromm, QB, Georgia +1500
- Speaking of the Dawgs, the only way they win anything worth anything this year is with a Heisman worthy performance from Fromm. We’ve seen ups and downs with Fromm so far but every now and again he makes a play that reminds you of why every analyst on Earth had a raging football erection for him a few years ago. Simply put, the kid can ball. And if he plays up to his potential then there is no reason he should not be in the discussion when the end of the year rolls around.
- Joeux Burrow, QB, LSU +9000 (HALF UNIT)
- Call me a dummy if you’d like but these picks are all about value. I have the Tiguhs as a dark horse to possibly sneak into a playoff spot this year, and much of that depends on Bayou Joe just not making mistakes. If Burreux can play mistake free football and lean on what should be a top 10 defensive unit in the country then I really don’t see why he can’t at least be in the mix. Throw down half a unit (25 to win 2250 oh me oh my) and lets get a little weird with this one.
- Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson +275
- Probably the most realistic of the 3, Lawrence will have every chance to show out this year looking to defend a National Championship. Part of me thinks the hype might be a little bit high but then another part of me kicks that part in the dick and berates it for forgetting how incredible this kid was down the stretch and in the playoff. Toss a unit and relax knowing he’s almost a lock to make the final 3 barring injury.
- Miami Fl, +9000
- It’s all about the U. Between Manny Diaz, Tathan Martell/KJ Osborn, and a potentially terrifying defense, many have picked up the moniker TNM or The New Miami. While clearly not the favorite in the ACC, if The U can beat Florida week 1 and make it to the Clemson game without a hiccup, I actually believe that they can sneak into the playoff even with a competitive loss to Clemson on their record. It’s a good value play and if nothing else should give me an excuse to pull for what could be a very fun and exciting team in South Beach. Tathan should eventually win the starting job and stabilize what was a turnover prone offensive unit last year and if both the offense and defense play to their ability this team can contend. Expect N’kosi Perry to high tail it out of there like Carl Lewis when he loses the job.
- LSU, +1700
- Geaux Tiguhs. People have knocked Coach O as a poor game manager but there is simply no denying he is a phenomenal recruiter. After bringing in the 15th best rated recruiting class in the country last year, Coach O has the 5th strongest class in the country this year. They return Bayou Joeux and arguably the best defensive player in the country and definite Bednarik Award watch list member Grant Delpit. It’ll be interesting to see if the Tiguhs can take that next step, they get Florida and Auburn at home but I will be circling Week 11 @ Bama as a potential CFB game of the year and if both teams are undefeated at that point there will be massive playoff implications. Again, this is based on perceived value and is frankly one of my favorite plays on the board heading into the season.
- Georgia, +600
- While both Bama and Clemson are arguably better picks at +200, where’s the fun in that? I always like to ride the third or fourth favorite, a team that will offer me good value along with a (more) realistic chance of actually making the playoff. Georgia is that pick. I know I took Bama to win the SEC but I think it would be real difficult to keep Georgia out if their only loss comes to Bama in the SEC Championship game and if Kirby Smart can just coax that next step out of Fromm and Co. I certainly wouldn’t wanna meet em on the gridiron. The pupil always eventually becomes the master and it feels like this Bulldog team has been on the cusp for too long, time to shit or get off the pot and I think I smell a big stinky shit brewing.
Alright, now that that’s off my chest let us recap. 15 plays that I am confident enough to pass on to you and that have all been in on my book for a couple weeks already. I’ll post an update at the end of the season with the records and inevitable profit of these picks and would like to remind our readers that I capped CFB at 63% last year and went 3-1 on team o/us. So strap in for a great season and let’s get this money. Also, be on the lookout for a full CFB preview podcast from myself, Mookie, and Unk where we’ll find the overlaps and sweet spots between our picks and I will explain to Mookie why he is wrong about everything else.
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