WARNING: I’ve been trash this year but some say I’m due. Not sure I mentioned this before but I started the year 7-0. My record on the year is 62-41-1 (*NOTE*: that’s if you’ve been fading me). In this blog, I will be providing you with my expert analysis for why I like these picks. So if you decide to fade me after reading this, I wouldn’t blame you but I do like these guys and they’re locks one way or another. Sorry I had to do it you, but this one’s for the haters.
Kansas/Oklahoma St OVER 67.5
12:00 pm BIG 12 overs are a bigger lock than a hungover Mookie Bets ordering his usual Iced Caramel Macchiato at his local coffee shop. Especially when it’s being played by these two teams. It’s no secret what this OK ST team can do on offense; it’s also no secret how putrid of a defense they have. They’ve been putting up 37 pts of offense while allowing teams to score close to 30 pts on defense. I expect them to top their average offensive total and maybe even sneak into the 50s against a Kansas defense that allows 33 ppg. Note: they will be without star WR Tylan Wallace who tore his ACL last week, but that won’t stop them from lighting up the scoreboard against this Kansas team. The Kansas offense, however, have been averaging 31.6 ppg since they fired their Offensive Coordinator and promoted Brent Dearmon. Oklahoma St really struggles to defend the pass and Kansas has already shown the ability to put up points against bad defenses (i.e. Texas and Texas Tech). This game will be a shootout. I honestly can’t imagine a scenario where this game goes under. Take that for what it’s worth.
UMass/Northwestern UNDER 56.5
Hilarious game. 2 wins between the both of them. UMass (1-9) will travel to Northwestern (1-8) in a game where Northwestern is favored by 40.5 pts. A 1-8 football team being favored by that much really goes to show how much of an embarassment UMass has been this year. Their 1 win came against a winless Akron team who is also winless ATS. The UMass offense is averaging 20.7 ppg, while the Northwestern offense is averaging 11.1 ppg. You may be asking yourself (along with the fact they’re 1-8), how can a team that averages 11.1 ppg be favored by 40.5? The answer… the 53 points UMass has been allowing their opponents to score on average. They are hilariously bad. Northwestern will probably top their season-high 30 pts they scored in their only win against UNLV, but they still average 11.1 ppg and will be without starting RB Kyric McGowan. Northwestern also doesn’t have the worst defense in the world (only appropriate way to complement them) and I would be shocked if UMass reaches double-digits in scoring. Love this game. Love the under.
Alabama (-19) @ Mississippi St
I like Bama to bounce back from last week’s disappointing home loss to LSU in this game. Tua is reportedly a game-time decision but I still like them to cover here with or without him. Mac Jones looked great in his one start this season (even though it was against Arkansas), but this Mississippi St defense isn’t much better, if at all. They entered last week’s game against Arkansas on a 4-game losing streak with the defense allowing 40.1 ppg in that stretch. Bama will be playing pissed after getting left out of this week’s College Football Playoff and will want to run up the score. Tua or not, roll with the tide.
Georgia (-2.5) @ Auburn
Can’t leave the biggest game of the week off my slate. The people have been flooding my DMs on who to take here (not really, but my DMs remain open ;)). I like Georgia to cover. Here’s why. They probably have the best defense in the country and have a stout run defense. What does Auburn love to do? Run the football. If Auburn has trouble running the football, they will be in for a long afternoon. I believe they will. Georgia ranks 4th in the nation in rushing defense allowing teams to rush for only 74.6 ypg. Bo Nix is a nice, young dual-threat quarterback but I can’t see him beating Georgia with his arm and he’ll be forced to do so. Georgia snuck into this week’s College Football Playoff and it is clear they put their loss to South Carolina in the rear view. They won’t make the same mistake again. Although it won’t be easy, this is a game they can’t lose. Jake Fromm has plenty of big game experience and with the defense playing lights out, gimme the Bulldogs. Also doesn’t hurt Georgia has won this meeting 7 of the last 9 times.
Oklahoma/Baylor UNDER 67.5
Taking an under in a game involving Oklahoma you say? In the words of the great Heisenberg… YOU’RE GOD DAMN RIGHT. This is the biggest game for Baylor since the RGIII days??? Wako, Texas will be jacked up for this one. Two BIG 12 teams, huge game for both, I expect the defenses to show up here. Baylor hasn’t faced an offense quite like Oklahoma’s this season, but allowing 19 ppg in the BIG 12 conference has to earn you some type of reward. Being undefeated and only ranked 12th should have Baylor feeling disrespected. I won’t say shutting down, but containing a Lincoln Riley offense would be a great fuck you to the committee. The reason why I can’t take Baylor here is because of their offense. They’ve shown the ability to put up points this year, but scoring no touchdowns in regulation in last week’s OT victory over TCU has me concerned. Oklahoma’s defense is not great, but they are better than advertised. Take the last two games out of the picture, and this Oklahoma defense has allowed an average of 19.4 ppg. If they want to remain in the picture for the playoff, the defense has to show up in games like this. Baylor’s offense shouldn’t scare them. Take the under here.