7-1. We are 7-1 +5.9 units through 2 weeks of XFL play. Some would say that’s pretty good. I say that’s not good enough! To lose even 1 XFL Bet is simply unacceptable and it won’t happen again, I assure you. We’ve got another strong slate this weekend and I definitely have spots I like so let’s dive in.
Houston Roughnecks (-6.5) @ Tampa Bay Vipers ou 45.5 2pm Saturday
Something anyone who’s handicapping these lines will notice is the totals are down across the board this week. After opening every week 1 game at 51.5 and a 6-2 run for the under to start the season Vegas seems to be wising up. This is a tough spot for the Vipers who come in at 0-2 on the season for their home opener against the undefeated Roughnecks. At the end of the day with no Aaron Murray at QB this Roughneck squad should just be too much for Tampa to handle with PJ Walker dealing the way he has been. Roughnecks -6.5 is the pick with a hard lean on the over.
Dallas Renegades (-5) @ Seattle Dragons ou43.5 5pm Saturday
Seattle will be without 2 offensive tackles in this game and are coming off a fairly lucky win over the 0-2 Vipers last week, but they got absolutely thumped by the Defenders the first time around. Landry Jones (hey that’s a name people kinda know) should look a little more comfortable in his second start after missing most of training camp and Week 1 with a left knee injury. We’re getting chalky here but the smart play is the smart play and money is money, Dallas -5, book it.
New York Guardians @ St. Louis Battlehawks (-10) ou40 3pm Sunday
Like I said, Vegas is getting wise. 40 would be a low NFL total and it’s a trap if I’ve ever seen one.
My brain says under but my heart says over and for that reason I disavow this line. Won’t be touching it. However, I do still like a side. This should be one of the more compelling XFL games this season as pro football makes its triumphant return to St. Louis. Tickets are completely sold out on the primary market and the atmosphere should be electric. That combined with the egg the Guardians laid against the Defenders last week has Vegas overreacting just a tad in my opinion. 10 is just too many points in a fledgling league like this especially with the new comeback rules and potential 9 point possessions. You could be up 18 with a minute to go and one score can cover the 10, XFL bets aren’t dead until they’re dead. So with that, we’re gonna go against the grain here and lock in Guardians +10.
DC Defenders (-8) @ LA Wildcats ou44 6pm Sunday
This game terrifies me. Why does it terrify me you ask? Because I have not one, not two, but THREE (3) plays I love in one game. That’s either a great sign, or a terrible sign, but the heart wants what the heart wants and when the brain wants it too I’m left with no choice. The Defenders are the best team in the XFL right now, as evidenced by this nifty team tier chart that uses Offensive and Defensive EPA.
For those of you who are not football nerds, EPA stands for expected points added per play and calculates field position, down and distance, and a handful of other factors to basically measure whether a play added to your total expected points or subtracted from it. As you can see, The Defenders have had the best offense in the XFL by a significant margin and are just below the #1 Roughnecks in Defensive EPA. As you can also see, the Wildcats are more or less completely incompetent on defense. Do you get a sense for where this is going yet? No? Fine, I’ll just have to lead a horse to water and make it drink. The 3 locks for this game are Defenders 1h -4.5, Defenders -8, and o44 and you can take that to the bank.
And that’s the Week 3 Gambling Primer pals, good luck and get that money this weekend. You can follow me on Twitter to thank me for lining your pockets @Harry__Mac.
Gambling Primer YTD: 7-1 +5.9 units