To say that this is a HUGE week for the Gambling Primer would be a massive understatement. We’re still 10-4 +5.6 units overall but we’re coming off a 3-3 week that saw us lose the juice and that is simply unacceptable for an XFL Guru like myself. So with that being said, let’s stack some units this week.
LA Wildcats (-8) @ NY Guardians ou39 2pm Saturday
Atop the list of things we’ve learned about the XFL in 3 short weeks: The Guardians fucking STINK. Like aggressively stink. They stink worse than getting in an NYC cab that smells like the cabbie has never seen a shower in his life and has also eaten every (extremely smelly) meal of his last decade right there in that Toyota Camry. These lines opened at 7 and 40 respectively so I wouldn’t be shocked to see them keep moving in these directions and close a half point off of where they are now. Matt McGloin is out this week with a chest injury (one of his teammates probably pushed him down a flight of stairs at the facility) which means former UNC standout Marquise Williams will get the start. The Wildcats are coming off an impressive win while the Guardians continue to trend towards stink, and for that reason we’re hopping on board the fade train. Wildcats -8, book it.
SEA Dragons @ STL Battlehawks (-11.5) ou38 5pm Saturday
Now we’re getting interesting XFL, it’s good to see them at least attempt to make these games difficult to cap. The Battlehawks opened at home last weekend to a sold out crowd and there’s no reason to think that St. Louis’ second pro football game since the Rams left to get a pack of cigarettes in 2016 and never came bach will be any less raucous. I really really like o38 but can’t help but feel like it’s a trap. For context, the under is 8-4 so far through 3 weeks of XFL play. But, like I said last week, the books are starting to wise up and a trend like that can’t go on forever. Look for The Battlehawks 3rd ranked scoring offense to have it’s way with the Dragons 6th ranked scoring defense and as long as the Dragons can score once or twice I think 38 should be well within reach, so we’re gonna lock in o38. Building on some early XFL trends, home teams and favorites are 7-5 ATS so far so chalk has been the safer pick in the early goings but regardless, The Battlehawks are 3-0 ATS while the Dragons are 1-2 with their only cover coming at home. It’s a big number but it’s the smart play, Feed me STL -11.5.
Houston Roughnecks (-2.5) @ Dallas Renegades ou50 4pm Saturday
I’ve definitely noticed that the trendy pick for everyone this week is o50 in this game. It’s the highest opening total since week 1 when all the games opened at 51.5 (how I yearn for a simpler time when money was that free). The Roughnecks lead the XFL in scoring at 33 ppg and are seemingly the driving force behind such a high total as Dallas has the best scoring defense in the league (15 ppg) and a mediocre offense good for 19.3 ppg and 5th in the XFL. With all that being said, I couldn’t be seeing this game more clearly. I’ll boil it down real simple: PJ Walker good, Landry Jones bad. Roughnecks -2.5 is the easy play here and while we’re at it let’s take u50 too. You don’t win betting sports by going with the flow, you win by being a contrarian and going against the grain.
DC Defenders -2.5 @ TB Vipers ou43.5 7pm Sunday
Last but not least, the Defenders head down to Tampa looking to right the ship after an ugly road debut in LA. I’m a little bit worried after their flat out garbage performance last week, but I’m willing to give a team travelling cross country for it’s first ever road game the benefit of the doubt. You know who I’m not willing to give the benefit of the doubt? Marc got damn Trestman that’s who. It is patently absurd that we’re already hearing stories leaking from the Viper locker room that Trestman has lost the team. Players are allegedly concerned his poor scheming will cost them their livelihoods and future football opportunities. Frankly, the circus they’re running down in Tampa reminds me a bit of my beloved New York Jets, only with more strip clubs. This is another situation where I’m just gonna trust my eyes and my brain. DC has been the significantly more talented and better coached team and there’s no reason that shouldn’t continue. Defenders -2.5, take it to the bank.
So there you have it folks. 6 plays that you can take to the bank and that will right the ship after last weeks .500 performance. The XFL has been thoroughly enjoyable so far and at least by my estimation it’s here to stay so get used to it. Follow me on twitter @harry__mac and let’s get this money. everyone.
Gambling Primer YTD: 10-4 +5.6 Units