Well folks, it’s officially that time of the week again. Through 4 weeks of XFL play, we’re 13-6 +5.3 units. A little regression after our historic start, but a profit is a profit and I’ll gladly take that any day of the week. One of the big things I told all you degenerates to watch out for last week was Vegas wising up on the totals. After an 8-2 start for the Under, things have started to creep bach towards the mean and it now sits at 11-5. Still a significant advantage for the Under but it’s going to be less and less automatic going forward in this XFL Guru’s opinion.
Before we jump in, a reminder that Pointsbet is the official line provider for The Bookie’s Basement and you can bet all of my picks with a nice hefty bonus deposit and a free play right here or by going to Pointsbet.com and entering the Promo code BACH.
Now, as much as I hate to say it because they have been great to us, these picks combined with that promo might legitimately bankrupt Pointsbet. I’m seeing the board as clearly as I ever have. All lines accurate as of 1pm Friday. And with that, shall we dive in?
Seattle Dragons @ Houston Roughnecks (-12.5) ou46 Saturday 2pm
The Roughnecks are the one team I’ve been on the right side of all season. Last week PJ Walker carried them to a win over the Renegades despite a practical no show from Cam Phillips who came into last week as the XFL receiving leader. This matchup pits the Roughnecks #1 ranked scoring offense against a Dragons defensive unit that’s scraping the bottom of the league barrell and ranked #6 of 8 total. 12.5 is a lot of points but we’ve seen home teams have a slight advantage both straight up and ATS so I’m feelin confident laying the chalk here. Lock in Roughnecks -12.5 to start the weekend with a winner.
New York Guardians @ Dallas Renegades (-7.5) ou 37
Tough break for Dallas losing Landry Jones last week and we once again find ourselves in a spot with 2 teams trending in different directions. The Guardians pulled off the upset at home last week behind new QB Luis Perez and Dallas is the only team in the XFL without a home win. Once you do a little research though, there’s a stat that really just jumps off the page and slaps you in the face. These 2 teams area combined 8-0 on the under. Every single game either of these 2 teams has played has gone under. The books are adjusting as you can see with that little 37 total, but here’s my thinking: 2 teams going 8-0 on unders in 4 games is such a statistical anomaly that when they meet I just have to fade that trend. I feel like someone smarter than me can probably explain the probability to me and how it’s like roulette and they’re all individual and the past results don’t affect the probability of future outcomes. Or I could call that guy a fuckin’ nerd and trust my big smart brain that has yet to fail me (catastrophically). This is my anti probability big brain LOCK of the annum – o37.
STL. Battlehawks (-4.5) @ DC Defenders ou38.5, 3pm Sunday.
This one has all the makings of an actually good football game. Aside from the fact that I will be in attendance, on crutches, bringing the absolute heat, I have no qualms labelling this a must win for the Defenders. After a 2-0 start that saw them just mollywhopping teams at Audi Field, the Defenders had to hit the road and frankly, it all went to shit. And that is being VERY respectful of Coach Pep and everyone in the building over there. Cardale Jones has looked more like Vespadale or maybe even Bikedale. He hasn’t looked as good as a car you see, but I digress. The Battlehawks are rolling right now and are 3-1 with a chance to put themselves in the driver’s seat in the east division as we inch toward the playoff push. Some are gonna call me a homer for this but here’s where I see value here – STL’s only loss came on the road. DC has been 2 completely different teams at home (2-0 over 24ppg) and on the road (0-2 with a skunk performance for good measure). We hear all the time that it’s tough to win on the road in football, and that hasn’t held any more true than in the fledgling weeks of the XFL. So, even though this pick scares me, the value is too good to pass on by my calculations. DC DEFENDERS ML +165 is the pick. Put your balls on the damn table and let’s hope Jordan Taamu doesn’t smash them with a sledgehammer.
Tampa Bay Vipers @ LA Wildcats (-2.5) ou40 9pm Sunday
Another very intriguing spot here. Tampa impressed by thumping DC last week, but frankly I still don’t trust Coach Trestman and it doesn’t sound like that TB locker room does either. I’ll keep this one simple, while both teams stink, a 1-3 Vipers squad coached by Marc Trestman having to fly cross country to LA and play a football game has to be the least confidence inspiring spot I’ve ever seen. Trestman himself is really just some sort of succubus of confidence, just slowly draining the will and life force of all the players in his locker room. So this is gonna be another keep it simple pick. don’t need the numbers, don’t need to think too hard, just need my eyes and brain to tell me this is a great spot for LA. Send LA -2.5 and then go directly to the bank for an advance on your winnings.
So, good luck this week everyone. We’re 13-6 +5.3 units so far and I have a feeling we’re going it alllllll this week. Pointsbet, I’m truly sorry for the losses you are about to incur, but that’s the choice you made when you stepped into our humble little Basement.
P.s – I wrote this slightly under the influence while on a 5 hour bus ride from NYC to DC so if you see typos/mistakes/have complaints re read this paragraph and then also sit on your thumb until someone addresses your qualms.