Baseball is back and The Hammer is juiced. Yea the schedules aren’t what we’re used to, but they’re still awesome. It will make the playoffs that much better with potential match-ups between teams that didn’t face-off during the regular season. The rule changes are brutal, with the exception of the NL DH, which is probably a sign of things to come in the future. Curious to see what this does to the OU in these games…..but the runner added to 2B at the start of the 10th is a total joke. First, if you got a solid bat in the box to begin the extra frame, they’re gonna be given 4 with the open bag, so that’s a no-brainer. Or if you’re an Astro, you’re just gonna get drilled and it won’t matter because the bag is already open. And the kicker if that assumed runner eventually scores?! It won’t even count as an earned run! I understand it’s to preserve these players and the length of these games considering they’re playing 60 games in 66 days, but I don’t like it. You make millions….suck it up. Make the manager actually manage and if the game runs well into the night, make the adjustment in the next day’s lineup. Or how about this….work your way on, swipe a bag, sacrifice them into scoring position….something! Small ball has completely disappeared in this game. Now, you’re a simple sacrifice or grounder to the right side away from getting the guy to third and having him score on a measly fly ball. No wonder the run is gonna be “unearned” !!!
And some of these COVID rules are a little much in my opinion….the catcher can’t toss it around the horn after a K, the 1B can’t throw it around after a put-out, the pitcher can’t use the same ball after a new AB, they can’t lick their fingers and have to use a “wet rag”….and no seed, no chew, and all gum must be directly spit into the garbage. Baseball with no chew?! Dugout floors not coated in shells?! A “WET RAG” ?!?!
Regardless….Major League Baseball is back and it all begins with Scherzer & Cole this Thursday at 7pm in an EPIC battle on the hill to start the season. I will leave my Yankee bias out of this one….Yanks will win this one and reel off another 59 in a row….but this is an awesome way to get things started; the defending World Series champs and their Cy Young winner hosting the 27-time World Series champs and a Cy Young winner of their own. Lets fucking go!
But what type of MLB season would this be without some WIN TOTALS and FUTURES talk?! We’ve got some no-brainers from both the Yankees and Dodgers this season (both o38.5 wins, LAD +375 and NYY +400 to win it all), but for some value, we’ll have to look a bit deeper. Let’s start some win totals that we’re gonna HAMMER !! 🔨
LAD o38.5 – Stacked lineup, solid staff, and NL West schedule that’s laughable. Not to mention, games with the Mariners and Rangers….40 wins shouldn’t be a problem.
NYY o38.5 – Loaded lineup, incredible depth, stacked rotation, insane bullpen, and probably the easiest schedule in the league…need I say more?
PHI o31.5 – Was on the fence with this one for a bit of time….but a solid 1-2 punch in Nola and Wheeler, a reliable vet and Cy Young winner in Arrieta, and a deep lineup with Bryce, JT, Rhys, and Cutch are all why I like them to finish above .500. The addition of Didi (who is a leader and beyond underrated in the clutch) and Binder Joe takes this team over that 32 win mark and a potential Wild Card appearance. Also, 10 games with the Marlins, 10 with the Mets (who will ALWAYS implode), and matchups with the BRUTAL Orioles, a sorry Sox team, and a Toronto squad who just got kicked out of Canada…HAMMER the over.
BOS u32.5 – It kills me to say this….SIKE….but the Sox aren’t any good. Sale is on the shelf. Price is in LA. Porcello is in Queens. They have no rotation. And who in their lineup “scares” you beyond JD and Xander….Rafael Devers?! Cora is gone, so the Sox can’t cheat anymore, and the new Skip became their guy by default. Let’s be real…with their schedule (Yanks, Rays, Nats, Braves, Philly) and even the gimmes against Baltimore and Miami, they’ll be lucky to finish .500 on the dot. Sorry Beantown….you’re gaaaabage.
KC u24.5 – I mean….they have no one. They didn’t last year, which is why they lost 103 games, and they still don’t. Can you believe this franchise won a World Series 5 years ago?! Well….they played the Mets…so yea. But that’s besides the point. 25 wins from a team like this with 10 against Minnesota, Cleveland and a White Sox team on the rise, plus games with the Cards, Cubs, Brewers and a sneaky Reds team, KC is one of the 5 worst teams in baseball.
SEA u24.5 – This is another brutal one. 94 loses a year ago and didn’t do much to improve. Games with Houston, Oakland, a much better team in Anaheim (debating their over at 31.5….), the Dodgers, and the D-Backs, plus their the one team out of all 30 that has to travel the most in this condensed season….it all spells around 40 or so losses. Another bottom-5 club.
MIA u24.5 – HAHAHAHAH this is laughable. This line should be closer to 14, let alone 24! Pains me to say it, but you got your work cut out for you Jeets! You can look further than their schedule, but you don’t have to. Yanks, Rays, Nats, Braves, Philly….the only team you can argue that they’re better than on their entire schedule is the O’s and that’s very debatable. If they win 20 games, it would be a miracle.
Borderline plays: LAA o31.5 (They just added Rendon, Ohtani is back, Trout is Trout, solid lineup and arms, and the magic man Joe Maddon….don’t sleep on ’em) // TOR u27.5 (now that they don’t have a home ballpark) // BAL u20.5 (they are soooo pathetic and their schedule is impossible, but 20 is just so damn low….still gotta lean under)
World Series Futures: We mentioned the Yanks (+400) and Dodgers (+375) earlier and they will most likely represent their respective leagues in the Fall Classic, but there isn’t much value there.
If you wanna take a flyer on a team with longer odds, look no further than the Nationals at +1900 in this shortened regular season. You cannot say it enough, but in a shortened 60 game season, the importance of your staff is crucial, just like it is in October during baseball’s “second season,” and the Nationals have a STACKED rotation. Mad Max, Corbin, Sanchez, WS MVP Stephen Strasburg….when you go to war with those guys, it’s gonna be hard for the opposition to come out on top, and at +1900 for the defending champs with that rotation, as well as a man-child in Juan Soto, I LOVE their value.
The Rays at +1800 are a team to look out for as well. With Blake Snell (fucking loudmouth), Morton, and Glasnow, that’s a formidable crew Tampa can throw out there. Add in the opener strategy that Cash rolled out last year and his ability to take advantage of certain match-ups, they are a squad you can’t overlook. Don’t sleep on their lineup either, and the ease of their schedule will absolutely put them in the mix for a Wild Card spot. The chances of winning it all aren’t ideal, which is why Vegas has them at 18-1 odds, but we’re talking value here, and throwing $50 on them at +1800 is worth a shot.
**And don’t even THINK about considering the Mets at +2000. STAY AWAY !!!! Yea DeGrom is a beast and their staff is certainly solid even with Syndergaard on the shelf, but their bullpen is a complete and utter DISASTER and that’s exactly what’s gonna keep them from reaching that second level. Plus, they’re the Mets, and if there’s one thing you know as a New Yorker, it’s that the METS will always MET. Something bad is bound to happen….it always does. I mean shit, DeGrom has already had an MRI and we haven’t even started yet! From Cespedes destroying his ankles during a fight with a wold boar (yea, that really happened….) to Cano looking like he’s eaten a wild boar or two, and from Jed Lowrie to Edwin Diaz to Jeurys Familia and everything else in between, you need to stay far away from this team. I have absolutely NO IDEA how Vegas has them penciled in as a playoff team right now (+150 to make the playoffs is good enough for the 5th best odds in the NL), but you need to stay the fuck away. DON’T EVEN THINK ABOUT IT!**
THE BETS 🔨
OVER: LAD o38.5 — NYY o38.5 — PHI o31.5
UNDER: BOS u32.5 — KC u24.5 — SEA u24.5 — MIA u24.5
Borderline Plays: LAA o31.5 — TOR u27.5 — BAL u20.5
WS FUTURES: LAD +375 — NYY +400 — TB +1800 — WAS +1900
Baseball is back. Lets fucking go. HAMMER IT 🔨
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