Alright gang, we are down to the second leg of the Fed Ex Cup Playoffs! The top seventy players remaining in the Fed Ex cup standings will head out to Illinois to the North Course at the Olympia Fields Country Club to try to secure a spot in the final. This week’s no-cut event will determine the final thirty remaining golfers in the standings to decide the $15 Million dollar, grand prize winner, at next weekend’s Tour Championship. The North Course will be hosting their first PGA tour-level event in 17 years, with the 2003 U.S Open being the tours last stop here. The last winner at the course is in the field as Bryson Dechambeau, who is an absolute square by the way, won the 2015 U.S amateur at this same venue. Sorry to get off track but I mean it is almost hilarious how big of a loser the guy is on the course. Every week the guy is bitching about something new whether it be fire ants, people talking while he’s chipping and or people just breathing in his vicinity while he is throwing his back out to gain an extra 10-20 yards to his drive. I take it back; it is almost comical how disliked this guy is in the golfing community. Ok, let us get to a little preview and my predictions.
Olympia fields is on the longer side of the PGA courses measuring at around a little over 7,300 yards playing as a par 70. The course will feature only two par 5’s this weekend both measuring at a tad over 600 yards each. There will also be four par 3’s with one of them being a daunting 251 yards. And last but not least, twelve par 4’s with seven of them testing the player’s ball-striking ability by measuring at over 450 yards each. With a long course and thick rough, think of it as almost a similar feel to the PGA Championship a few weeks back at Harding Park. In theory, A ball-strikers paradise.
I am 3 for 11 (27%) on outright winners since the restart. Hitting on Dustin Johnson at the Travelers Championship (26/1), Collin Morikawa at the Workday Charity Open (30/1), and Collin Morikawa again at the PGA Championship (34/1). I have not been heavily tracking my positioning finishes but cashed out on +1000, +500, and two +300 plays in last weekend’s tournament.
1 Unit Plays
- Jason Day (28/1) – This is more of a personal pick as I am a big fan of the Aussie and have loved his recent resurgence following his back problems early this year. Since his breakout in 2015, Day has consistently been one of the better putters/ball strikers on the Tour and at only 32 years old, I am not ready to write him off yet. Day had a rough outing in the first leg of the playoff last week at the Northern Trust, but I am more intrigued by his top 5 finish at the PGA Championship a few weeks back. Great value on Day this week.
- Patrick Cantlay (32/1) – Even though he has not been playing good since the restart, Cantlay’s tour stats are still great. He is in the top tier of hitters off the tee, good enough of a putter, and a top 10 player in total strokes gained on the tour. You would think that would be a recipe for more wins and or top 5/10/20 finishes, but that has not been the case in recent months. Coming in ranked #12 in the world golf rankings, this value just seems too juicy not to sprinkle.
- Tyrrell Hatton (36/1) – Hatton is another guy I am a big fan of who comes in at #15 in the world golf rankings. He is one of the purest ball strikers on the tour. Tyrrell was playing the best golf of his career before the pandemic and had two top 5 finishes back to back when the tour returned. His last three starts have not been as good, but his stats are too enticing to not buy into. Though he is not the longest off the tee, as long as he is accurate, the rest of his game plays. It should be no question to sprinkle another guy ranking in the top 10 of strokes gained total on the tour with an often-reliable putter to boot.
- Kevin Kinser (46/1) – Kisner is just always in the hunt. Riding a hot streak of a top 20 and two top 5 finishes in his last 3 tournaments. His recipe for winning is simple, the guy putts. He is not going to wow you off the tee or with his ball-striking but if he is on the dance floor in regulation, there is not a putt that does not have a chance of going in. Do I necessarily think he has what it takes to win this week? No, but at 46/1 I will roll the dice.
- Paul Casey (51/1) – I am personally not a Paul Casey fan, but this course seems to fit him well. I am going completely on a hunch with this pick solely based on him being the #1 ranked ball striker on the tour, and it showed at the PGA Championship with a tie for 2nd. Though his putting stats are some of the worst on the tour, his strokes gained off the tee and approach make up for it. I will take my chances with an over 50 to 1 longshot.
- Gary Woodland (70/1) – Listen, I am fully aware Woodland has not been good at all since the restart. But let us be real, last year’s U.S open winner is ranked 23rd in the world golf rankings for a reason. He is still a top tier golfer and to get him at 70 to 1 is bananas. His ball-striking/putting combo ranks him in the top 30 in strokes gained total on the tour and I think you would have to be almost dumb to not sprinkle a unit or two on a huge longshot like Gary Woodland this weekend.
2 Unit TOP PICK
- Daniel Berger (20/1) – This guy was already having a career year, but he has been a man possessed since the restart. Coming into the BMW Championship ranked 3rd in the Fed Ex cup standings with A win, three top 5’s, and a top 20 at the PGA Championship in his last six starts. Some would say that is pretty good; I would certainly say so! Berger’s stats are some of the most consistent on tour as he comes in as the number 3rd ranked player in strokes gained total. There is nothing the guy cannot do as every facet of his game is on par (no pun intended) as he does not seem to have a weakness. To sum it up, DB is straight-up vibin right now. #ifyouknowyouknow
Positioning Picks: Disclaimer, not going to give a long description of these so you are just going to have to trust me. Also, my book only has Top 10 finishes this week so follow as you please.
Top 10 Finishes (Ties Included)
1 Unit Plays
- Harris English (+250) – Guy is hot right now and one of the best ball strikers on tour. You get the gist.
- Matthew Wolff (+350) – Course history here for Wolff and the guy seems to love the spotlight. Underrated putter and dangerous off the tee.
- Daniel Berger (+180) – Straight up just vibin.
- Scottie Scheffler (+230) – Pure ball-striker, great putter, and he shot a 59 in a round last week in his first fed ex cup tournament ever.
2 Unit Plays
- Morikawa (+150) I do not care about last week. This guy is unreal and has won me a fair share of money over the summer.
- Dustin Johnson (+140) You saw what he did last week. When he is hot, he is unstoppable, and boy is he hot right now.
- Tony Finau (+230) Almost took him to win this week but Tony is a classic top finishing guy. As long as the putters there, he will be in the hunt.