Here are some notes/previews on the games I’m looking to bet. These are not my picks, but this will basically be an overall notepad for my brain and an early starting point for the games I might play this weekend. I will be updating and adding to this all week.
Tulane/UCF, Open UCF -20, O/U 63.5. Now UCF -19, O/U 72
This over has shot up 9 points since opening and for good reason. UCF has 36 plays which resulted in 20+ yards and 11 plays that resulted in 40+ yards on the season. Their pace of play is insane, they lead the country in plays per game at 91.5 and tire out defenses fast, but it also leaves their defense out to dry, which is why I think Memphis was able to storm back in the 2nd half and beat them last week.
Tulane put up 34 on SMU and Michael Pratt easily had the best game of his college career. 20 is a lot of points but UCF has to be fired up after losing back to back games for the first time since 2016. I also think Tulane played well above their means last week which has me leaning UCF by 3 TD’s off first glance.
Auburn/Ole Miss, Open AUB -6, O/U 70.5. Now AUB -3, O/U 71
Bad throw Bo and Matty 6 Picks are both coming off awful losses to South Carolina and Arkansas respectively. In Bo’s last 3 games he’s hit 54% of his throws for 636 yards, 2 TD’s and 4 picks. Not great. On the other side, Ole Miss and Matt Corral came back down to earth after scoring 35, 42, and 48 in their first 3, and then lost to Arkansas 33-21. The O/U for that game was set at 76 which is absurd (I played it for a unit and it was one of my few wins last week), and I think the total is in a similar spot now. I think I’m staying away from a side on this one, but the is value in that total for sure. Time to dig.
NC State/UNC, Open UNC -18, O/U 71. Now UNC -16.5, O/U 61.5
UNC just got beat by FSU 31-28 in a game where they were down 31-7 at halftime. They started too slow to even have a chance at covering, but in the 2nd half their passing game clicked and their D didn’t let up a point to make it interesting. It was a disappointing performance for a team who’s offense was starting to roll after wins against BC and Va. Tech, and especially a let down since FSU has been a doormat this year.
NC State is ROLLING like a hipster at Bonnaroo but just lost starting QB Devin Leary to a broken leg. After falling to Va. Tech in week 2, they rattled off 3 straight wins against Pitt, UVA, and Duke, and are now 4-1 ATS with the total going Over 4-1. The Wolfpack get UNC this week and then Miami the next which is a brutal stretch for them. Will this be a UNC bounce back or will the Pack stay hot? Going to digest some tape and stats and report back.
Cincinatti/SMU, Open CIN -1.5, O/U 57. Now SMU -2.5, O/U 56.5
SMU is coming off a rollercoaster OT win against Tulane and remains undefeated on the year. Buechele threw for 384 and 2 TD’s, but SMU played sloppy and their defense got slashed by Tulane’s running game often. Credit to Tulane’s run D, running game, and FR QB Michael Pratt for extending plays with his feet and making timely throws including this dime in the first quarter.
Even with the loss of WR Reggie Roberson Jr., SMU threw for 439 and 2 TD’s, with 3 receivers going over 100 yards. Every pass catcher they have has the chance to bust open a gigantic play at anytime and at any point on the field, it’s honestly absurd to watch.
Cincinatti’s defense has been stellar, only allowing 12.3 PPG, 284 YPG, and forcing 5 sacks and 7 picks through 3 games. Saturday will mark the 21st day since the Bearcats have played a game, and I’m thinking that rust and lack of conditioning led to the line swinging in SMU’s favor so quickly.
While SMU broke my heart last week, I’m leaning their spread -2.5, BUT I think the value lies on the over at 56.5. Cinci’s D is tough but hasn’t seen an offense like SMU’s so far this season. SMU gives up 25 PPG and puts up 43 PPG. Will be monitoring weather and injuries/COVID and looking to play this game.
Oklahoma/TCU, Open OU -5, O/U60.5. Now OU -6.5, O/U 59
Quick timeline. OU and TCU have both lost to Iowa State and K-State, and have both beaten Texas. Weird. Also, both teams are coming off a 14 day stretch since their last game. TCU is coming off a 21-14 loss vs. K-State and OU is coming off a dramatic 53-45 win in Red River shootout. I need to get a better read on TCU before I play a side, but I’m currently leaning Rattler > Duggan in an offensive duel.
This over/under seems sketchy to me. An average of 71.5 points have been scored in OU’s game through 4, and an average of 56.67 points for TCU through 3. 60 is simply too low for almost any BIG 12 game, so I’ll do some digging into the weather and injury report before I make a play on this.
Temple/Memphis, Open MEM -13, O/U 73. Now MEM -13.5, O/U 71
Memphis and UCF put up a combined 99 points and the Tigers ended up on top 50-49 by outscoring UCF 36-22 in the 2nd half. UCF and MEM had 798 and 703 yards of offense respectively, and it was one of the most exciting games I’ve watched this season. Brady White was 34/50 for 486 and 6 TD’s through the air, and also ran for 30 yards and a TD on the ground. Dillon Gabriel was 35/49 for 601 yards and 5 TD’s passing while rushing for 49 yards and a score. Insane QB play and a lack of defense is what I live for.
Temple looked sloppy and barely pulled off a 39-37 win against USF. Russo was inconsistent at times but made throws when it counted, although they were gifted an 11 yard fumble return for a TD with 9:52 left in the game which allowed them to take the lead for the first time since 1:18 left in the 2nd quarter. It was a disappointing performance for a -13.5 favorite at home to win off a failed 2 point conversion.
Russo and White can both sling it and both teams can crank the scoreboard. 71 might be a bit too high. I’m worried about Memphis coming off a slugfest and looking ahead to Cincinnati in 2 weeks. I think Russo might be able to keep Temple in this game. Will report back.
Adding more games throughout the week. Hit my replies or DM’s to talk spreads or other nonsense.