Disclaimer: Since I have a lot of picks for the weekend, I will be doing them in separate tiers!
After a long seven month wait, we have finally made it. IT IS OFFICIALLY MASTERS WEEK! Oh, Augusta how we have missed you. My favorite weekend of the year that usually takes place in mid-April got pushed all the way to mid-November and right smack in the middle of football season due to the pandemic. I do not know about you guys, but I am so excited about this weekend that I am genuinely smiling writing this blog. To think that we will get to watch two Masters events within a six-month span makes this even better, truly “A Tradition Unlike Any Other”. Now let us get to a little preview and then my picks for the weekend.
Played at in my opinion the most beautiful golf course in America in Georgia’s own Augusta National, the Masters really is the best golf tournament in the world. Augusta National is a lengthy par 72 course measuring just shy of 7,500 yards featuring bent grass greens. Though it seems like an easy course due to the fact that it doesn’t have a lot of rough and the par 5’s are very scoreable, that has never really been the case. The only major championship in golf that is played at the same venue every year, the Masters usually favors bigger hitters and players who have good history and knowledge of the course. Did I mention the Masters does not allow green-reading books? Experience is key at Augusta and it shows as only three newcomers have ever won the Masters in its 86-year history. Let us get to the picks!
Tier 1: Personal favorite picks
- 1) Collin Morikawa 34/1 (3 Units to Win 103 Units) – Alright scratch what I said about course history here. If there is going to be a 4th newcomer to ever win at Augusta, it is going to be Morikawa. I love this kid and truly believe he will be the best golfer in the world in the next few years. Though his 2021 season is off to a rough start, Morikawa has made back to back cuts including a T12 at the CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek (a similar course to Augusta). Morikawa is still in my opinion, the purest striker on the tour and I truly think the defending PGA champion makes a strong run for his 2nd major title in the same calendar year this weekend.
- 2) Jason Day 52/1 (2.25 Units to Win 116 Units) – Here is where we will rely on a little course history. Jason Day has played the Masters nine times and has made the cut eight times with his only missed cut being a Withdrawal back in 2012. Want to be more impressed? Of those cuts here is how he finished from 2011-2019, (T2, WD, 3rd, T20, T28, T10, T22, T20, T5). To say he does not love Augusta would be a crime. Day has been playing some solid golf to boot with 3 straight cuts made including a WD on the last day of the CJ Cup which looked like it had a top ten finish written all over it and a T7 in his tune-up last week at the Houston Open. Not sure what odds your site/book has Day at but anything over 30-35/1 I would take in a heartbeat.
Bonus 1.25 Unit Play: Jason Day to finish top 20 (+120)
- 3) Adam Scott 44/1 (2.25 Units to Win 99 Units) – Another pick that will be relying on course history, but in this case, we are going with a past winner of the Masters. the 2013 winner has played the Masters a stunning 18 times and has made the cut 16 times including ten top 25’s, 5 top 10’s, 2 top 5’s, a tie for second, and a championship. Talk about an almost immaculate history at Augusta national. For someone who has played the Masters a whopping 18 times, Scott is still only 40 years old and arguably in one of the best forms of his career coming off a resurgent 2020 including a win at the Genesis Invitational. I do not really want to throw any more money on him, but some sites have him at even higher odds than I got him at. If you can get him at 45-50+/1 odds do not hesitate to pull the trigger.
Bonus 2 Unit Play: Adam Scott to finish top 20 (+125)
Tier 2: Sure-fire Picks
- 1) Brooks Koepka 17/1 (2.25 to Win 38.25 Units) – Though Koepka has only played the Masters 4 times, he is four for four on cuts made with a T2 just last year. After an injury-plagued 2020 season, Koepka seems to finally be healthy coming off a T5 finish at last week’s Houston Open. We all know what Koepka is capable of on the big stage and no stage Is bigger than Augusta National. Getting a healthy Koepka at anything 15/1 and up in a major championship, especially in one where he finished in second place last year just does not seem fair. Whether he wins or not I expect him to be in contention Sunday and at these juicy of odds, I could not help but to get a little taste.
- 2) Webb Simpson 35/1 (1.5 Units to Win 52.5 Units) – Though his course history hasn’t been exceptionally pretty with five cuts made in his eight appearances at Augusta, this seems like more of a what have you done for me lately pick. Simpson is coming off back to back T20’s at the Masters including a career-best T5 finish at last year’s event. Did I mention he is also coming off arguably his best season on tour? After finishing 12th in the Fed-Ex Cup standings in 2020 including 2 wins and a bunch of top 10 finishes, the 35-year-old Simpson is in the prime of his career. In his 3 starts this season he has finished T20 in all 3 of them including a T8 at the U.S Open back in September. The #7 ranked golfer in the world getting anything over 30/1 odds seems like stealing. If you can get him T20 at anything plus money or T10 at anything around 3/1, I would recommend taking that as well.
- 3) Matthew Wolff 50/1 (1 Unit to Win 50 Units) – Wolff being 50 to 1 odds to win this tournament is crazy to me. I get it because as I stated earlier, only three times has a player making their debut at Augusta ever won in the tournaments 86-year history. But if Morikawa is the favorite for that feat, Wolff is a very strong second favorite. Coming off two top 2 finishes already this season in only four events with one of them being at the U.S Open and the other being a loss in a 3-way playoff to Martin Laird, the 21-year-old is in fantastic form right now. Do not pay attention to his last-place finish at the CJ Cup as he hurt his ankle on the first day and played through it instead of withdrawing. Wolff is an absolute stud and in only two Major performances in his life, he has finished T4 and solo second respectively. Anything 50/1 and above is well worth a sprinkle to me and anything plus money on T20 and anything juicy enough on T5/T10 seems like a good bet as well.
- 4) Matt Kuchar Top 20 Finish: 1 Unit Play (+280) – He has not been playing great golf as of late, but this guy absolutely thrives at Augusta National. The Georgia native has made 12 of 13 cuts at the Masters including three top 5 finishes and two top 10 finishes.
Tier 3 and My personal favorite: Value Hunting Picks
- 1) Paul Casey 71/1 (2.25 Units to Win 159.75 Units) – You want value, HERE is some value! Though Casey has not been as sharp as of late, he has played particularly well at the Masters throughout his career. Making 9 of 13 cuts at Augusta including two top 10’s, three top 6’s and a tie for 4th, one could say when he makes the cut here, he makes the most of it. That has to do with the Englishmen’s world-class ball-striking and advantage off the tee. Casey is one of those guys who does everything right, but the putter is never consistent. Casey always plays well on the bigger stages with and it shows of late with a T2 at the PGA Championship back in August and a T17 at the U.S Open in September. The odds-on Casey is too good not to sprinkle and if you can get a good value on his top 5/10/20 finishes I would suggest sprinkling those as well.
- 2) Tommy Fleetwood 68/1 (1 Unit to Win 68 Units) – Not much to back this one up but if you are a golf fan you know what Tommy Fleetwood is capable of. With three top 5 finishes including two 2nd place finishes at Major championships over the last three years, you can assume Fleetwood loves the big stage. Though he has not played great in America as of late, he is playing well on the European tour and seems to be in solid form ahead of his trip to Augusta National. Not sure what odd’s you can get him at but anything over 50/1 seems to be worth a sprinkle for in my opinion the man with the smoothest golf swing on the tour.
- 3) Louis Oosthuizen 65/1 (1 Unit to Win 65 Units) – This one baffles me. The 38-year-old South African is not only in great form right now with three straight cuts made including a solo third finish at the U.S Open back in September, but he has superb history at Major’s. Though his only major victory came back in 2010 at the Open Championship, he has five top 2 finishes at Major’s and famously squandered a two-stroke lead with five holes to go at Augusta back in 2012 resulting in a loss to Bubba Watson in a playoff. Love the longshot odds here and would recommend sprinkling a little on his top 5/10/20 odd’s if they are juicy enough.