- 1) Iowa (-3.5, O/U 58) @ Minnesota
Time/Date: Friday 11/13, 7:00 PM
Weather: 34 and Sunny
Iowa: 1-1-1 ATS and 1-2 on Overs
Minnesota: 1-2 ATS and 2-1 on Overs
Key Injuries: Neither team has any notable injuries to report.
Offensive/Defensive Rankings: *Note the sample size is small for these teams since they have only played three games each*
Iowa: Ranked #77 in total offense and #18 in total defense
Minnesota: Ranked #34 in total offense and #112 in total defense
Notes: Though Iowa’s defense ranks high, I think it is a fluke. They are 1-2 against the likes of Purdue, Northwestern, and Michigan State. If that does not tell you about them than I do not know what does. Meanwhile Minnesota has lost to an underwhelming yet dangerous Michigan team and a surging Maryland team in an OT thriller.
Prediction: Scrap the rankings out of the window. I do not care how bad Minnesota’s defense has been through three games, Iowa’s offense is not good, and I see this being a lopsided victory for the Golden Gophers. Iowa Sophomore QB Spencer Petras is your typical 6’5 big armed QB who can’t hit the broad side of a barn. The Hawkeyes have historically been a ground and pound defensive team and though they do have a dynamic duo at RB, I do not see that being enough to keep up with Minnesota’s power trio. As for Minnesota, though his 2020 campaign is off a sluggish start, Junior QB Tanner Morgan is much better than his stats show and having stud RB Mohamed Ibrahim and superstar WR Rashod Bateman in his arsenal should help the Gophers turn things around ASAP. Minnesota being a home dawg to this Iowa team is disrespectful. Not only do I see the Gophers covering the 3.5, I see them outright winning pretty convincingly. Leaning toward the under as well.
Give me the Golden Gophers in a slow game, 30-20
- 2) #9 Miami @ Virginia Tech (-2.5, O/U 67)
Time/Date: Saturday 11/14, 12:00 PM
Weather: 59 and Sunny
Miami: 4-3 ATS and 4-3 on Overs
Virginia Tech: 3-4 ATS and 5-2 on Overs
Miami: Star TE Brevin Jordan – Questionable (Shoulder)
Virginia Tech: Star RB Khalil Herbert – Questionable (Hamstring)
Miami: Ranked #36 in total offense and #53 in total defense
Virginia Tech: Ranked #25 in total offense and #95 in total defense
Notes: Blind resume, Miami’s wins and losses look a lot better than Virginia Tech’s as VT has losses to UNC, Wake Forest, and Liberty. Though those are three solid teams, Miami’s only loss was to then #1 Clemson. Miami has a solid run defense, and it is known that if you can stop the Hokie’s rushing attack you can win no problem. I would advise taking the Hurricanes early as even if Herbert does play, he is being bothered by a hamstring injury and won’t be 100% and if he is declared out for VT, I can see Miami being a slight favorite in this game.
Prediction: Another week I get suckered into betting Miami, but this time I promise it makes sense. Virginia Tech is a very one-dimensional team as they excel at running the ball and they do it particularly well. With that being said, Miami’s rushing defense is good enough to contain the attack especially with a hobbled Khalil Herbert if he is to play. The biggest mismatch of game has to do with Miami’s balanced above average offense against Virginia Tech’s horrid defense. I expect the Hurricanes to attack the Hokie’s through the air while also keeping them on their toes with their read option. Superstar Miami QB D’Eriq King’s handprints will be all over this game and do not be surprised if he has a 5+ touchdown day with his arm and legs. If you can get Miami ML at anything plus money take it now and do not look back. The over is definitely the play here, but I might be staying away from that one.
Hurricanes win a slugfest, 41-34
- 3) TCU @ West Virginia (-3, O/U 45.5)
Time/Date: Saturday 11/14, 12:00 PM
Weather: 53 and Sunny
TCU: 4-2 ATS and 3-3 on Overs
WVU: 5-2 ATS and 4-3 on Overs
TCU: Nothing new of note
WVU: Starting ILB Josh Chandler-Semedo – Questionable (Knee), Star RB Leddie Brown – Questionable (Undisclosed)
TCU: Ranked #72 in offense and #40 in defense
WVU: Ranked #32 in total offense and #6 in total defense
Notes: Both these teams resumes are solid; TCU owns the better win with a road victory against the then ranked #9 Texas Longhorns. With both these teams having played six or more games the rankings seem to be legit. With that being said, the rankings heavily favor the defensive minded Mountaineers, especially at home.
Prediction: TCU is a one-dimensional team and even if they are ground and pound first team, they do not even do that particularly well. West Virginia relies heavily on junior stud RB Leddie Brown and if he cannot suit up it may be trouble. With that in mind, I am still confident enough In the Mountaineers lockdown defense and passing attack to escape with a win. Expect a low scoring affair with West Virginia doing enough to walk away victorious. I would advise only playing the Mountaineers at anything -3 or lower, I personally am going to buy the hook to -2.5. The under is a smart play but it is just a little too low for me.
West Virginia wins a sloppy one, 23-17
- 4) Louisville (+3.5, O/U 66) @ Virginia
Time/Date: Saturday 11/14, 3:30 PM
Weather: 58 and Sunny
Louisville: 3-3-1 ATS and 5-2 on Overs
Virginia: 4-2 ATS and 5-1 on Overs
Louisville: Nothing new of note
Virginia: QB Brennan Armstrong – Leg (Probable)
Virginia Ranked #55 in total offense and #82 in total defense
Louisville: Ranked #42 in total offense and #56 in total defense
Notes: These rankings seem to be a big mismatch on paper. Though both teams have very similar resumes, Virginia has the more impressive win with a home victory against then ranked #15 UNC. With that being said, the Cavaliers are a pass first team and their starting QB is not fully healthy right now. That does not seem like a good recipe against an above average passing defense as the Cardinals boast a top 30 passing defense.
Prediction: I know their season is not going as planned but Louisville is a lot better than their record shows. Lead by the outstanding track team like trio of junior QB Malik Cunningham, stud RB Javian Hawkins and the ever explosive wideout Tutu Atwell, expect the Cardinals to turn it around the second half of their season. I think this game has the feel of a shootout, but I personally do not think the score is going to be that close. Louisville has the better defense and when you mix that together with a Virginia offense that struggles enough already with a hobbled Brennan Armstrong, I just do not see them keeping up with Louisville. The over seems like the obvious play, but I will probably stay away.
Give me the Cardinals in a high scoring affair, 44-31
- 5) #19 SMU @ Tulsa (-2.5, O/U 64)
Time/Date: Saturday 11/14, 7:00 PM
Weather: 75 and Sunny
SMU: 5-3 ATS and 4-4 on Overs
Tulsa: 3-1 ATS and 2-2 on Overs
SMU: Star WR Reggie Roberson Jr – Out for year (Knee)
Tulsa: Star LB Zaven Collins – Probable (Toe)
SMU: Ranked #9 in total offense and #64 in total defense
Tulsa: Ranked #67 in total offense and #42 in total defense
Notes: I for one am not buying the Tulsa hype. Their rushing defense is really solid but against an air raid offense like SMU, that is not going to fly. Tulsa’s offense is not even close to being on the same level as the Mustangs and for an offense losing their superstar WR early in the year, SMU has not missed a beat.
Prediction: I think Vegas really messed up the line on this one. There is zero reason for SMU being an underdog in this one and even if Tulsa seems to be better than people think, they just should not be favorited in this game. Though Tulsa was able to contain UCF’s powerhouse offense, I do not see the same result against Shane Buechele and company. SMU’s offense is well balanced as they get with freshman standout RB Ulysses Bentley IV and breakout sophomore wideout Rashee Rice. I think SMU not only covers, but they win outright very convincingly. Do not be afraid to take the over as well.
Mustangs roll, 45-28
Weekly Dog Time!
Starting in week 9, we are out to a hot start as the first ever weekly dog cashed at (+300) thanks to the Spartans of San Jose State. Again, these are 1 Unit plays only as I am not overly confident in these picks, but they are worth a sprinkle at the price.
- 1) Southern Miss (+200) @ Western Kentucky
Date/Time: Saturday 11/14, 3:30 PM
Weather: 66 and Cloudy
Prediction: Listen, I do not really have stats to back this one up besides the fact that statistically the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky have one of the five worst offenses in all of college football. Averaging a pedestrian 15.3 PPG and 272.8 YPG in 8 games is not a recipe for success and there just is not a reason a team that offensively inept should be favorited. Not to say Southern Miss is much better but at least their offensive statistics are subpar averaging 25.9 PPG and 376.9 YPG against a somewhat similar schedule.
Southern Miss wins a snore fest, 20-14