- 1) #9 Indiana @ #3 Ohio State (-20.5, O/U 66.5)
Date/Time: Saturday 11/21, 12:00 PM
Weather: 59 and Sunny
Indiana: 4-0 ATS and 3-1 on Overs
Ohio State: 2-1 ATS and 1-1-1 on Overs
Indiana: Starting OLB Cam Jones and Starting WR Ty Fryfogle – Questionable (Undisclosed)
Ohio State: Nothing notable
Indiana: Ranked #89 in total offense and #19 in total defense
Ohio State: Ranked #13 in total offense and #34 in total defense
Notes: Not to sound like a hater but I am calling bullshit on Indiana’s #9 ranking and their 4-0 start. Listen, any 4-0 start in the Big Ten is impressive but to still be ranked #89 in total offense when you have played the likes of Penn State, Rutgers, Michigan, and Michigan State, I am just not impressed. Those four teams have a combined record of 3-13, I say we pump the brakes a little on Indiana and see how they fair this weekend against an absolute powerhouse in Ohio State. Not to say Ohio State has been that impressive either but at least they have a guy named Justin Fields under center.
Prediction: I am predicting a snap back to reality for the Hoosiers this weekend. Ohio State is another animal and I don’t care how good your defense has fared so far this season, when you go up against Justin Fields and company you are simply going to have to outscore the Buckeye’s and I don’t see that happening Saturday afternoon. Indiana is going to have trouble running the ball and I just do not see Michael Penix Jr doing enough with his arm to keep this game close. Expect Ohio State to finally get their dynamic RB duo of Teague and Sermon going and Justin Fields to have a field day in a statement win for Ohio State. The over is probably the play here, but the number is just a little too high for my liking for an Indiana game.
Ohio State makes a statement, 49-24
- 2) #10 Wisconsin (-7, O/U 44) @ #19 Northwestern
Date/Time: Saturday 11/21, 3:30 PM
Weather: 47 and Cloudy
Wisconsin: 2-0 ATS and 2-0 on Overs
Northwestern: 3-0-1 ATS and 0-4 on Overs
Wisconsin: Nothing new of note
Northwestern: Basically, half the team is questionable with COVID-19 related issues
Offensive/Defensive Rankings: (Sample size is small for Wisconsin)
Wisconsin: Ranked #32 In total offense and #1 In total defense
Northwestern: Ranked #96 in total offense and #11 in total defense
Notes: These rankings are exactly what I thought they would be. And I believe Wisconsin’s offense is even better than that #32 ranking suggests, Freshman QB Graham Mertz is that good. Though Northwestern is ranked #11 in Defense I am not completely sold as their wins are not too impressive, but Northwestern has historically been a defensive-minded team, so I will not write that off. On the other side, even though it has only been two games, Wisconsin’s defense is for real and Indiana Grad transfer and now Northwestern QB Peyton Ramsey is not going to be the guy to pick them apart. (PAGING JUSTIN FIELDS!)
Prediction: WAKE UP CALL ALERT! Northwestern is enjoying a 4-0 start and their first time being nationally ranked in years, but they are going to get exposed on Saturday. Northwestern’s offense just is not good at all and that is a recipe for disaster against this Badger defense. Expect the Badgers and their well-balanced offensive attack to overpower the Wildcats on both sides of the ball in a lopsided victory while sending a warning sign to the rest of the Big Ten (Ohio State). If you can get Wisconsin at -7 or better, take it ASAP. The total seems enticing here, but I would stay away as I do not see Northwestern scoring much in this one.
Wisconsin wins a low scoring game, 28-14
- 3) #14 Oklahoma State @ #18 Oklahoma (-6.5, O/U 59.5)
Time/Date: Saturday 11/21, 7:30 PM
Weather: 68 and Rainy
Oklahoma State: 3-3 ATS and 2-4 on Overs
Oklahoma: 5-2 ATS and 5-2 on Overs
Oklahoma State: Star RB Chuba Hubbard – Lower Leg (Questionable)
Oklahoma: Star TE Austin Stronger – Leg (Questionable)
Oklahoma State: Ranked #53 in total offense and #15 in total defense
Oklahoma: Ranked #11 in total offense and #25 in total defense
Notes: I am just not buying these teams actually being that good at defense, IT’S THE BIG 12 for F*ck’s sake! I guess the stats do not lie, but this game is coming down to offense and I will take Lincoln Riley and company 10 times out of 10 over Mike Gundy’s group.
Prediction: Listen, Oklahoma State arguably has the two best offensive players in this game in Chuba Hubbard and Tylan Wallace, but I think Spencer Sanders is really holding them back from being playoff contenders. Spencer Rattler is the real deal and though Oklahoma State has the 8th ranked passing defense in the Nation, I just do not see it being enough to contain Rattler. My gut is saying to ride with the Sooners at home, but I personally would only play it at anything 7 and under. Last year this O/U was 68 and it soared under in an Oklahoma 34-16 win. I am going to go out on a limb here and say play the under at its current number and If you can get Oklahoma at -6.5, pull the trigger.
Sooners win, 31-21
- 4) #21 Liberty (+3.5, O/U 67.5) @ NC State
Date/Time: Saturday 11/21, 7:30 PM
Weather: 71 and Sunny
Liberty: 6-2 ATS and 6-2 on Overs
NC State: 6-2 ATS and 6-2 on Overs
Key Injuries: Neither team with any new notable injuries
Liberty: Ranked #18 in total offense and #13 in total defense
NC State: Ranked #66 in total offense and #97 in total defense
Notes: Listen, I know Liberty’s rankings may be a little padded as they have played a fairly easy schedule compared to NC State’s ACC schedule but on paper, this game is a huge mismatch. Liberty is for real and they showed it on the road against Virginia Tech who may I mention smoked NC State back in October by 21 points when NC State still had starting QB Devin Leary.
Prediction: Vegas messed this line up big time, Liberty is legit. Former Auburn QB Malik Willis took over for the Flames and has established himself as arguably one of the best Dual Threat QB’s in the nation. Hugh Freeze is building an FBS powerhouse down in Lynchburg, Virginia and I do not see them slowing down anytime soon. Despite their 5-3 record, NC State is not a good team on either side of the ball. I just do not see a Bailey Hockman led offense keeping up with the explosive Flames. I predict Liberty to win this game outright pretty convincingly and though the over seems enticing, I advise to just take Liberty ML and +3.5 and not look back.
Flames make another statement to the ACC, 38-27
- 5) LSU (-2.5, O/U 64) @ Arkansas
Date/Time: Saturday 11/21, 12:00 PM
Weather: 69 and Rainy
LSU: 2-3 ATS and 3-2 on Overs
Arkansas: 6-1 ATS and 3-4 on Overs
LSU: Starting QB Myles Brennan – Abdominal (Out for year)
Arkansas: Starting WR De’Vion Warren – Knee (Out for year)
LSU: Ranked #27 in total offense and #112 in total defense
Arkansas: Ranked #72 in total offense and #79 in total defense
Notes: Do not be fooled by LSU’s offensive rankings, those numbers came with Starting QB Myles Brennan. Their offense has taken a big step back in their last two games with Backup freshman QB T.J Finley. Though the rankings suggest otherwise, Arkansas is better on both sides of the ball in my opinion.
Prediction: I believe Vegas messed this line up as well. There is no reason for LSU to be favored in this one, like zero reason at all. Arkansas has the best player in this game by a longshot in Florida grad transfer QB Feleipe Franks who for some reason gets no love from the media. Neither of these teams have a good rushing attack but Arkansas’s is better stat-wise. In a potential rainy game, I am heavily leaning towards the veteran QB and home dawg Razorbacks. Not touching the total but If you want to take action on it, I would lead toward the under.
Razorbacks win a sloppy one, 27-20
- 6) Kansas State @ #17 Iowa State (-10.5, O/U 46.5)
Date/Time: Saturday 11/21, 4:00 PM
Weather: 45 and Cloudy
Kansas State: 5-2 ATS and 4-3 on Overs
Iowa State: 3-4 ATS and 4-3 on Overs
Kansas State: Starting TE Briley Moore – Back (Probable)
Iowa State: Nothing new of note
Kansas State: Ranked #101 in total offense and #63 in total defense
Iowa State: Ranked #48 in total offense and #38 in total defense
Notes: Kansas State’s offense is painfully bad. Even when starting QB Skylar Thompson was healthy they were still bad, and they are even worse now with Freshman Will Howard. Iowa State’s rankings are a little misleading as well as even though he has underperformed for most of the year, QB Brock Purdy is in my opinion one of the top QB’s in the Big 12.
Prediction: Anything under two touchdowns is enough for me to play Iowa State here. Iowa State is significantly better than Kansas State on both sides of the ball and I do not see Kansas State scoring much in this one. Iowa State RB Breece Hall has arguably been the top running back in the nation this season and against a team allowing 161 rushing yards a game, expect him to have a field day Saturday. I have a feeling we are going to get a Purdy breakthrough game soon enough and do not be surprised if it’s this weekend.
Iowa State wins in a blowout, 31-10
UPSET OF THE WEEK TIME!
Took a break last week on the upset of the week as nothing was really jumping out at me, so we are still 1-0 +3 Units. This week we’re going with a home dog! (Remember these are 1 unit plays and we do not use stats to back these up)
- Missouri @ South Carolina (+200)
Prediction: These teams are very similar as neither team has been impressive, but they both have one strong point. This game is going to come down to Missouri’s passing attack against South Carolina’s rushing attack. South Carolina coming off a 59-42 loss to Ole Miss last week finally fired big-name head coach bust Will Muschamp. To say his four years in South Carolina were disappointing would be an understatement. I have a feeling South Carolina comes out to play for interim Head Coach Mike Bobo and I smell an upset brewing. The value is too good not to sprinkle.
South Carolina grinds out a close victory, 24-21
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