- 1) #13 Iowa State @ #17 Texas (-1, O/U 57)
Date/Time: Friday 11/27, 12:00 PM
Weather: 75 and Cloudy
Iowa State: 4-4 ATS and 4-4 Overs
Texas: 2-4-1 ATS and 5-2 on Overs
Iowa State: Nothing new of note
Texas: Starting WR Joshua Moore – Chest (probable), Starting RB Keaontay Ingram – Ankle (questionable)
Iowa State: Ranked #48 in total offense and #38 in total defense
Texas: Ranked #40 in total offense and #57 in total defense
Notes: This is going to be a really good game. Both these teams have sort of underperformed and have a bad loss on their resumes. On paper this game is as fair as it gets, and it seems like Vegas has got it right as well with the spread.
Prediction: I like both these teams, I really do. But this game seems like it is going to come down to quarterback play and when it comes to college football, I will take Sam Ehlinger over just about any other QB, the guy is just that good. On the other side, Iowa State QB Brock Purdy has severely underwhelmed this season after getting projected as some to possibly be a 1st round pick this April, that is out the window as Purdy all but cemented his status as just another decent college QB. Iowa State lives and dies by the run with standout sophomore RB Breece Hall and surprisingly enough, Texas defends the run very well. The over makes sense here, I am not going to play it, but I am comfortable enough with the number to suggest others to play it.
Give me the Longhorns in a potential Big 12 championship preview, 33-30
- 2) #2 Notre Dame (-5.5, O/U 67.5) @ #19 UNC
Date/Time: Friday 11/27, 3:30 PM
Weather: 68 and Sunny
ATS: Both teams are 4-4 ATS and 5-3 on Overs
Notre Dame: Starting Offensive Linemen Jarrett Patterson and Tommy Kraemer – Both out for year
North Carolina: Nothing new of note
Notre Dame: Ranked #24 in total offense and #11 in total defense
North Carolina: Ranked #5 in total offense and #64 in total defense
Notes: This game is your classic offense vs defense battle. Both teams average 233.5 rushing yards per game but UNC averages over 100 more passing yards a game. While Notre Dame averages more than 100 yards less of total yards allowed per game.
Prediction: Going to go out on a limb here, UNC wins this game. This has the feel of a Sam Howell statement game to show the rest of the nation, UNC means business. I am going to advise you to take the points here, but I truly believe the Tar Heels win this game. I am a believer in taking the offense in college football, especially at home in a huge ACC matchup. Give me Sam Howell over Ian Book any day of the week and the Tar Heels dynamic RB duo of Michael Carter and Javonte Williams is better than whatever Notre Dame has to offer. I am debating whether or not I am going to play the total, but I am heavily leaning toward the over because if UNC does wind up winning this game, it will be a shootout.
UNC wins in a potential game of the year, 45-37
- 3) Penn State @ Michigan (-2, O/U 58.5)
Date/Time: Saturday 11/28, 12:00 PM
Weather: 46 and Sunny
Penn State: 0-5 ATS and 2-2-1 on Overs
Michigan: 1-4 ATS and 4-1 on Overs
Penn State: Star TE Pat Freiermuth – Out for year (undisclosed)
Michigan: Nothing new of note
Penn State: Ranked #41 in total offense and #36 in total defense
Michigan: Ranked #79 in total offense and #78 in total defense
Notes: On paper this is a total mismatch, but if you have watched the Nittany Lions since that OT heartbreaker week 1 against Indiana, they look absolutely lost. The Nittany Lions have been rotating QB’s all season and just lost their best offensive player in Freiermuth for the season. As for Michigan, Jim Harbaugh finally made the decision to pull QB Joe Milton after going down 17-0 last week against Rutgers and it may have saved the Wolverines season.
Prediction: Sophomore QB Cade McNamara seems to have lit a fire into the Wolverine offense and I think they might go on a little bit of a run to save Jim Harbaugh’s season before a likely firing in the offseason. As for Penn State is an absolute mess right now and statistically the worst team to bet on this year as they are 0-5 SU and ATS. It does not really matter who is at the helm for the Nittany Lions whether it be Sean Clifford or Will Levis they just cannot get anything going on offense and it is not going to get much easier without Freiermuth. The total is interesting here because both these teams have been playing high scoring games this year and the number is somewhat low. If you are an over under person, I would advise taking the over, but I am going to stay away.
Michigan gets back to .500 on the season with a big win, 31-24
- 4) Louisville @ Boston College (-1, O/U 55)
Date/Time: Saturday 11/28, 4:00 PM
Weather: 55 and Sunny
Louisville: 4-4-1 ATS and 5-4 on Overs
Boston College: 5-4 ATS and 4-5 on Overs
Louisville: Starting TE Marshon Ford – Undisclosed (questionable), Star RB Javian Hawkins – Opted out (out for year)
Boston College: Starting WR Zay Flowers – Shoulder (Questionable), Starting QB Phil Jurkovec – Shoulder (Questionable)
Louisville: Ranked #38 in total offense and #51 in total defense
Boston College: Ranked #87 in total offense and #53 in total defense
Notes: Louisville’s offense took a big step backwards when Javian Hawkins opted out for the season. Boston College’s offensive ranking is not too concerning to me because if you watch them, they actually have a good aerial attack which Louisville defends really well.
Prediction: This game is not going to be good. But I love this spot for Boston College. Basically, a pick em at home against a depleted Louisville team, it seems like a no brainer. My only worry is Boston College’s strength on offense is exactly where Louisville’s strength is on defense. I expect Boston College to establish the run against a bottom tier rush defense that Louisville has and open up Jurkovec and the BC aerial attack. I actually really like the under here as well, and I am advising to take it at the current number before it drops a little more.
Give me the Eagles in a low scoring game, 24-20
- 5) LSU @ #5 Texas A&M (-14, O/U 64)
Date/Time: Saturday 11/28, 7:00 PM
Weather: 64 and Thunderstorms
LSU: 3-3 ATS and 3-3 on Overs
Texas A&M: 3-3 ATS and 3-3 on Overs
LSU: Star DB Derek Stingley Jr – Head (questionable)
Texas A&M: Star RB Isaiah Spiller – Leg (probable)
LSU: Ranked #27 in total offense and #112 in total defense
Texas A&M: Ranked #35 in total offense and #26 in total defense
Notes: This game is a total mismatch on paper. LSU has not looked the same with QB Myles Brennan out and even though they are coming off a road victory against Arkansas, it was not very inspiring. I personally do not think A&M is as good as their #5 ranking suggests but they are definitely better than LSU. A&M has a sneaky good defense, and it has shown with their #26 total defense ranking.
Prediction: I see LSU struggling to get anything going against a Stout Aggie defense. A&M is a different animal at College Station, and this A&M team might one of their best in years. Kellen Mond is quietly having a sensational season as one of the top dual threats in the nation. LSU struggles to run the ball and I just do not see T.J Finley doing enough to even get themselves going at all. Be safe and buy the hook if your site has A&M at 14.5. I also Love the under here as I see the Aggie’s putting a beatdown on LSU.
Give me A&M in a blowout, 41-14
UPSET OF THE WEEK!
Alright, were 1-1 on these so far after a rough loss last week with South Carolina.
- Arizona (+300) @ UCLA
Prediction: Both these teams only have a few games play so the sample size of statistics is not enough to make an accurate conclusion on this game. With that being said, I got a feeling about this one. I do not know why, but I really think Arizona is due for a big win on the road. Grant Gunnell has a cannon and as long as Arizona can contain UCLA’s rushing attack, I see this being a close game. The Bruins still do not even know if Dorian Thompson-Robinson is playing this week but either way, were rolling with the Wildcats.
Give me Arizona in a slugfest, 44-37