The Hawaiian swing has officially concluded as the PGA tour ends its tropical vacation and heads out to California for The American Express open. In the past, this tournament was a Pro-Am event but for the 2021 season, the rules will be a little different. Instead of the usual 54 hole cut over a 3-day span, the tournament will be played with the traditional rules of a 36-hole cut over 4 days. The tournament will be played on two courses which both measure around 7,150 yards and are a par 72. The Jack Nicklaus course and PGA West Stadium course are often known as two of the easiest courses on the tour, so expect a birdie outpour all weekend. Both courses being played on Bermuda Grass have a similar feel and have often favored driving accuracy and approach shots.
The tour goes back to its traditionally 156 player format with multiple top 20 players in the world including Brooks Koepka, Patrick Reed, Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay, and many other top golfers competing in the American Express Open. With that being said, we are going to focus on approach to green stats and putting stats while taking a slight look into shots gained off the tee.
Whole card lost last week but we keep rolling!
2021 Golf Schedule:
- 1) Sentry Tournament of Champions (+3.5U)
- 2) Sony Open (-8U)
Tier 1 (The Favorites):
- 1) Matthew Wolff 20/1 (2U to Win 40U)
The California kid is heading home! The 21-year-old 15th ranked golfer in the world came out of the gate hot to start the 2020-2021 season with back-to-back 2nd place finishes in the U.S. Open and Shriners Open a few months back. Wolff hurt his ankle at the CJ Cup and never really recovered fully while competing in two more tournaments afterward including the Masters. With that being said, Wolff is ready to go and I expect the ball striking maestro to make a ton of birdies and a run at the title this weekend with his 8th ranked shots gained in approach and top 50 putting ability.
- 2) Russell Henley 34/1 (1.5U to Win 51U)
Henley might arguably one of the hottest golfers on the tour right now. The 31-year-old has seen himself rise to 28th in the Fed Ex cup standings, his highest since his breakthrough 2016-2017 campaign which saw him finish 13th in the Fed Ex cup standings. Henley has quietly made 6 of 7 cuts to start the season with all 6 of his finishes coming inside the top 30. Henley is simply in a groove right now and he seems due for a win very soon with his accuracy and ball striking having him within the top 10 of total shots gained on the tour. Great value for a golfer of Henley’s caliber this week.
Tier 2 (The Longshots):
- 1) Erik Van Rooyen 70/1 (1U to Win 70U)
The first of two longshots, no real evidence to back this one up but I love the value. The big South African Van Rooyen is just a solid player and often relies on his shots gained off the tee stats with his monster drives. This season has been a little different though, he has been ball-striking with the best of them and has seen his entire game improve. Thanks to his 23rd ranked approach to green shots gained stats, Van Rooyen has seen himself rise inside the top 40 of total shots gained on the tour and is in very good form right now.
- 2) Doc Redman 80/1 (1U to Win 80U)
This is a little bit of a personal pick for me. I love Doc Redman; I think this kid is going to be a great player in the very near future. Debuting on the tour last year, Redman has seen himself rise into the top 100 of the world golf rankings and is currently 50th in the Fed Ex Cup rankings with two top 5 finishes in only six tournaments this season. Redman is only 23 years old and is in excellent form right now and even though his game is not complete yet, he tends to wow people with his off the tee and ball striking skills where he ranks 19 and 46, respectively. This is a great price for a young player who I believe gets his first win on the tour sometime this season, maybe it comes this weekend!
PROP BET TIME
Placing Finishes (Top 10)
1) Patrick Cantlay Top 10 +180 (2U to Win 3.6U)
The value is not great here, but I just do not see the betting favorite not finishing within the top 10 this weekend. The world 10th ranked California native is lights out right now going 6 for 6 on cuts made and a win already this season at the ZoZo Championship back in October. Cantlay is not doing anything particularly special, but his entire game is clicking right now seeing himself rank inside the top 25 on total shots gained on the tour. I would never recommend taking someone with less than 2/1 odds to finish top 10 out of 156 golfers if I were not confident about it.
2) Matthew Wolff Top 10 +280 (1.5U to Win 4.2U)
Scroll up and see what I already wrote about Wolff, I love him this weekend. I am so confident he contends this weekend that I doubled down my outright with his top 10 odds. If that does not show you my love for this kid then I do not know what does.