The PGA Tour continues its West Coast excursion with a trip down to Scottsdale, Arizona and the beautiful TPC Scottsdale stadium course. Often considered a fan favorite due to the iconic 16th hole par 3 that is the only fully enclosed golf hole on the PGA tour, the stadium course will not have the same feel this year due to COVID-19. Usually hosting over 200,000 fans, the stadium course will only allow a mere 5,000 this year but should still provide fireworks. The Waste Management Open has historically been known as one of the easiest courses on the PGA tour yielding a par 71 7,300-yard course that usually sees the winner shoot around 15 to 20 under par. Back to Bermuda Greens this weekend, the putting should come naturally. In the past, TPC Scottsdale usually favors the premier ball-strikers so that is what we will focus on this weekend.
Another losing card last weekend, but we saw some signs of progress in our picks! Let us keep rolling and well see some success.
2021 Golf Schedule:
- 1) Sentry Tournament of Champions (+3.5U)
- 2) Sony Open (-8U)
- 3) American Express Open (-3.4U)
- 4) Farmers Insurance Open (-8.5U)
Tier 1 (The Value Plays)
- 1) SungJae Im 31/1 (1.25U to win 38.75U)
I will never stop betting on Sungjae Im at this value, I just will not. Even though he stumbled on the back nine Sunday at Torrey Pines which saw him fall from a tie for 2nd to a 32nd place finish, Im is still in unbelievable form right now. Making 11 of 12 cuts with an array of top finishes seeing himself up as high as 16 in the Fed Ex Cup rankings, his 14th ranked Ball Striking is the key to his success and I expect a birdie fest from young Im this weekend. Tied for 7th and 34th in his two attempts here since 2019.
- 2) Will Zalatoris 42/1 (1.25U to win 52.5U)
I know I said last week that he is becoming a star, but I truly think he already is one. After another top 10 finish last week at Torrey Pines, this kid already has 4 T10 finishes this season alone in only 7 tournaments! The young Zalatoris is so exceptional off the tee (ranked 15th) and with his approach shots (ranked 5th) that even though his other skills are not quite there yet, he is still ranked #5 in total shots gained on the entire tour. Want to hear the most impressive part? He technically does not even have his tour card yet and cannot qualify for the Fed Ex Cup. I expect the big-hitting Zalatoris to be contending all season long with a chip on his shoulder and considering the form he is in right now; I think he wins sooner rather than later.
Bonus: Top 10 Finish +310 (1U to win 3.1U)
- 3) Bubba Watson 42/1 (1.25U to win 52.5U)
This one is a perfect combo. Five top 5’s at TPC Scottsdale over the years including 8 total T20’s, some would say Watson plays some of his best golf here. It makes sense considering his superb off the tee skills (ranked 5th) and approach to green skills (ranked 9th) seeing him ranked a combined 3rd in total tee to green skills. Like I said above, TPC Scottsdale favors the ball striking stats which Watson clearly excels in. Watson is also in great form right now seeing himself make 4 of 5 cuts with two T10’s mixed in on similar courses @ Sherwood and Shadow Creek. Love the value here for Watson to finally get his first win at the Phoenix Open.
Bonus: Top 10 Finish +310 (1U to win 3.1U)
Tier 2 (The Longshots)
- 1) Russell Henley 61/1 (1.25U to win 76.25U)
Another good value play for a supreme ball striker. Henley is in great form right now as well making 6 of 8 cuts with two top 5 finishes at the above-mentioned similar tracks to TPC Scottsdale, Sherwood and Shadow Creek. Though Henley does not wow you off the tee with his distance, he is incredibly accurate ranking 15th in the world in driving accuracy while also being ranked #4 in approach shots gained and #12 in total shots gained altogether. Henley is incredibly consistent, and I see him being in contention come Sunday and at anything more than 60/1, I will take my chances.
- 2) Corey Conners 70/1 (1.25U to win 87.5U)
Conners sticks with our theme as just a good ball striker. Conners ranks 15th in Off the Tee shots gained along with the same exact ranking in total ball striking on the tour. Conners is also in good form making 8 of 10 cuts so far this season along with 3 top 10’s with one of those being an impressive 9 under par at the Masters back in November. I do not have many other stats to back this one up as Conners has only played here once last year finishing in a tie for 45th, but other than that I just like the value here for the young Canadian.
H2H Full Tournament Matchup’s
- 1) SungJae Im Over Harris English +100 (1.5U to win 1.5U)
Already took Im to win outright and just think he is in an altogether better form than English right now who blew up last weekend at Torrey Pines missing the cut with 6 over par. Should be a close matchup but I expect Im to pull away with it over the weekend.
- 2) Will Zalatoris Over Scottie Scheffler +100 (1.5U to win 1.5U)
I like Zalatoris so much this weekend, I am tripling down on him. And if you know me, I am a big Scottie Scheffler fan as well, but I just really think Zalatoris lights it up this weekend and edges out Scheffler by a few strokes.
- 3) Gary Woodland Over Si Woo Kim +100 (1.5U to win 1.5U)
This one is just going off of course history. Winner here in 2018, Woodland is 9 for 11 on cuts made at the Phoenix Open with 3 other Top 10’s. Though Kim is known for his stadium course dominance, Woodland is in solid form right now so I will take my chances.
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