The 2nd to last stop on the West Coast swing concludes with in my opinion, one of the nicest courses on the entire PGA Tour, Pebble Beach. Historically a Pro-Amateur event played on three different courses, the Pebble Beach Pro-Am will play as a regular tour event this season due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This season, the Pebble Beach Pro-Am will use two courses that are pretty similar in difficulty, Pebble Beach Links and Spyglass Hill. Golfers will only play at Spyglass once this weekend while Pebble beach will be the feature course on Saturday and Sunday and also be rotated between Thursday and Friday. Both courses play about 7050 yards and play to a par of 72, and in the past have catered to ball-strikers, around the green, and GIR specialists. Pebble Beach features some of the shortest fairways and smallest greens on the entire tour so big bombers rarely succeed here.
All hell broke loose Monday night as rumors of biggest PGA tour favorite ever Dustin Johnson (+350) withdrawing were beginning to swirl, and it led to a domino effect of odds shifting all over the place. Tuesday morning it was confirmed Dustin Johnson had officially withdrawn so the odds I got Monday night may be a little different than what you are getting, just a disclaimer!
Another losing card last weekend but all 5 of our out rights finished within the top 30 so signs are pointing up!
2021 Golf Schedule:
- 1) Sentry Tournament of Champions (+3.5U)
- 2) Sony Open (-8U)
- 3) American Express Open (-3.4U)
- 4) Farmers Insurance Open (-8.5U)
- 5) Waste Management Phoenix Open (-9.5U)
Tier 1 (The Favorite)
- 1) Daniel Berger +1500 (2.25U to win 33.75U)
DB Strait Vibin baby! Coming off a shocking cut last weekend, Berger seems like somewhat of an obvious play as the second betting favorite after Patrick Cantlay in a very weak field. Though he has not played much this season, Berger is 6 for 7 on cuts made with a pair of T10 and T25’s. With that being said, Berger is still above average in ball striking (ranked 54th), GIR (ranked 75th) and as always, a wizard with the flat stick seeing himself ranked 21st in putting shots gained. I really like the value here to see a similar trend fall into place as with the last two weeks of guys winning the week after missing the cut (Brooks Koepka at WMPO and Pat Reed at the Farmers Insurance). Berger is 2 for 2 on cuts at Pebble with a T10 and a T5 just last year. I almost would guarantee he is in contention come Sunday, which is all you can ask for.
Tier 2 (The Value Plays)
- 1) Francesco Molinari +3200 (1.25U to win 40U)
FRANCESCO IS BACK BABY! Molinari will always have a special place in my heart as he was my first golf outright winner ever at +2800 odds back in 2018 at the Open Championship. After missing basically all of 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Molinari is finally back in the states and ready to show the world again why he was a threat to win almost any tournament back in 2018-2019. Molinari is lethal with his irons and wedges seeing himself rank 17th in approach to green and 6th in around the green shots gained on the PGA Tour this season. Though the sample size is small, Molinari is coming off back-to-back T10’s after a 3-month hiatus and finally looks back to his normal self. Molinari is making his Pebble Beach Pro-Am debut this weekend but finished T15 here in back in 2019 at the U.S Open. I’ll admit I am buying into the back-to-back T10’s pretty heavily but it just seemed too good to pass on at +3200.
- 2) Si Woo Kim +4000 (1.25U to win 50U)
Though I do not really have any stats to back this one up, this value just seemed too good to pass up on at the price I got it at. Kim finally won again this season at the American Express Open a few weeks back after a 4-year winless drought. Though he is only 8 for 11 on cuts made this season with only 2 T10’s and 2 T25’s, the young Korean is elite around the green (ranked 6th in shots gained) and a decent enough ball-striker to make some noise. Though his history is not great here with only 2 of 5 cuts made, he finished T4 here 2 years ago. Do I particularly believe he wins this week? Not really, but at +4000 it is worth a sprinkle.
Tier 3 (The Longshots)
- 1) Phil Mickelson +6400 (1.25U to win 80U)
Though the stats do not back this one up as Phil has not been playing great golf recently, Pebble is Lefties course. 5-time winner and all-time money earner at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am with a slew of runner up and top 5’s mixed in, Phil just seems to always turn it up at Pebble Beach. Surprisingly, Lefty has played better here in his old age, as since 2016, Phil has two runner ups, a victory, and a solo third just last season. Again, his form is not great right now but at +6400, it almost feels idiotic not to take the Pebble Beach king no matter how bad he has been recently.
- 2) Brendan Steele +7000 (1.5U to win 105U)
Alright, you want a juicy longshot; Steele is your guy. The grizzled vet will never wow you with his skills but always makes up for that with his pinpoint ball striking (ranked 10th) and GIR percentage which is at a whopping 72.4% seeing him rank within the top 30 in that category as well. Steele has been in good form as of late making 3 straight cuts all inside the top 30 with a T4 at the Sony Open last month in which he choked away a demanding Sunday lead to Kevin Na. Steele also led the field in shot’s gained off the tee last week at the WMPO but only finished in a tie for 30th. Signs seem to be pointing up for Steele and the 3 time PGA tour winner seems like he may be primed for a win this season if he can get the putter hot.
PROP BET TIME
Placing Finishes (Top 10)
- 1) Kevin Streelman T10 +380 (1.25U to win 4.75U)
5 top 20 finishes here since 2016 with 3 consecutive T10’s including a runner-up last season. Streelman ranks 14th in GIR % which is a key stat for us this week and is in really good form right now making 4 of his last 5 cuts to see him rank 67th in the current Fed Ex Cup standings.
- 2) Francesco Molinari T10 +390 (1.5U to win 5.85U)
Molinari looks to finally be in good form again and currently ranks 17th in approach to green and 6th in around the green shots gained on the PGA Tour this season. Molinari is also coming off back-to-back T10’s and I really like the odds of him going for 3 in a row.
- 3) Sam Burns T10 +390 (1.5U to win 5.85U)
Burns is in really good form right now making 6 of 8 cuts this season with 4 T25s and 2 of those being Top 10’s. Burns is a ball-striking maestro ranking 6th in the category. His two strengths are his off the tee skills (ranked 9th) and putting (ranked 27th) and his GIR % ranks inside the top 20. All this is a recipe for a good weekend for Burns here at Pebble Beach. PS: I will be pretty upset if he wins as I almost had him locked in at +5100 but odds changed drastically last second due to the DJ withdrawal.
- 4) Henrik Norlander T10 +460 (1.25U to win 5.75U)
Another ball-striking maestro ranking 13th in the PGA tour in that category while also having a 73.6 GIR percentage seeing him rank inside the top 20, Norlander is a horse for the course. In really good form right now making 3 of his last 3 cuts with a T2 and two T20’s mixed in.
H2H Full Tournament Matchup’s
- 1) Peter Malnati Over Chris Kirk +100 (1.5U to win 1.5U)
I Trust Malnati’s putter over anyone on the entire tour right now. Tied for 11th here last year and is in really good form right now.
- 2) Kevin Streelman Over Rickie Fowler -110 (1.1U to win 1U)
Not much to say here just trust Streelman at Pebble Beach more than Rickie right now who just seems very out of whack as of late.