After an epic WGC Match play last weekend at Austin Country Club, the Tour will head out to the beautiful TPC San Antonio Oaks Course to compete for the Valero Texas Open trophy. The PGA tour makes one more stop in Texas as one last tune up before next weekends coveted Masters. A lot of the top golfers in the world will be taking the week off to rest, but the field is still pretty strong considering the circumstances. The Oaks course is your basic 7,500 yard par 72 course with a lot of trees and long par 3’s, par 4’s and par 5’s. Historically TPC San Antonio has been a tough course and a ball strikers paradise due to the 10%+ decrease in fairways hit and GIR compared to tour average. Defending champ Corey Conners is in the field and even though he made the course look easy in 2019 en route to shooting 20 under par, I expect the the winning number to be more around -12 to -14 this weekend. Anyways, for this tournament we are going to focus on ball striking, approach strokes gained, some driving stats, and mainly just form right now.
Tough outing for me at the matchplay last weekend but hey! they cant all be winners. Just stick with me and I promise we will remain in the green for the rest of the season.
2021 Golf Schedule: (+24.4U)
- Sentry Tournament of Champions (+3.5U)
- Sony Open (-8U)
- American Express Open (-3.4U)
- Farmers Insurance Open (-8.5U)
- Waste Management Phoenix Open (-9.5U)
- AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (+23U)
- Genesis Invitational (+0.55U)
- WGC Workday Championship (+38.75U)
- Arnold Palmer Invitational (-8.5U)
- Players Championship (+29.75U)
- Honda Classic (-13.5U)
- WGC Match Play (-19.75U)
Tier 1 (Two Favorites)
- Corey Conners +2000 (2U to win 40U)
Though he flopped last week at the Match Play, the defending champ is in unbelievable form in stroke play events coming into this weekend. Conners is as good as ball striker as you will find on the PGA tour coming in the top 15 in strokes gained off the tee, approach strokes gained and total ball striking. Beside that, Conners has 12 of his last 13 cuts with 5 top 10’s and 9 top 25’s mixed in. I really like Conners to replicate his success here like he did back in 2019 and expect him to be in the hunt come sunday.
2. Hideki Matsuyama +2400 (1.5U to win 36U)
I got a weird feeling Matsuyama is going to get back in the winners circle at some point this season and the Valero Texas Open seems like the ideal spot to do so. The stats may not totally back up Matsuyama this weekend but I like what I have seen from him recently. Coming into the weekend ranked 30th in the Fed Ex Cup standings, Matsuyama has made 12 of 15 cuts this season with 9 top 25’s mainly due to his 20th ranked tee to green strokes gained. I still like Matsuyama’s iron game enough to contend here and his accuracy should play up on a tougher course like the Oaks Course.
Tier 2 (Longshots)
- Matt Kuchar +6000 (1.25U to win 75U)
There is zero stats this season that will back this play up but I got a feeling about this one. Kuchar looked very well at the Match Play en route to a 3rd place finish which leads me to believe the tides may be turning. Kuchar is still as accurate as ever off the tee ranking 11th in driving accuracy on the PGA tour and mix that in with his 8 for 8 record of cuts made at TPC San Antonio with 4 Top 15’s, I really like Kuchar’s chances to contend this weekend.
2. Erik Van Rooyen +12000 (1.25U to win 150U)
Don’t have anything to back this one up but love the odds here on the big hitting South African. Like what I saw from him last weekend in the Match Play to make me believe that these odds were just way too good to pass up on.
Not going to give an long explanation on these prop bets, you are just going to have to trust me 🙂
Prop Bet Time!!!!
Top 20 Finishes
- Abraham Ancer +125 (2U to win 2.5U)
Supreme ball striker in terrific form with a #2 ranking in driving accuracy.
2. Ryan Palmer +130 (1.5U to win 1.95U)
Another top 20 ball strike with 5 career Top 15 finishes at the Valero Texas Open. Palmer is in excellent form coming into this weekend.
3. Jordan Spieth +145 (2U to win 2.9U)
Spieth is back and the entire PGA tour should be terrified. That is all.
4. Adam Long +250 (1U to win 2.5U)
Like what I saw last week from him at the match play to sprinkle a unit here.
5. Sebastian Munoz +270 (1U to win 2.7U)
Same as Long, Another guy who impressed me last weekend and Munoz is in good form to boot. Also a good ball striker I expect to compete this weekend.
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