IT IS OFFICIALLY MASTERS WEEK, again! For the second time in 5 months we get to watch another Masters tournament, lucky us! I don’t know about you guys, but I again am super excited about this weekend. Two Masters tournaments within a 5 month span is truly “A Tradition Unlike Any Other”, and if you are one of those people who thinks its either too soon and or there isn’t any hype around this Masters than you should seriously get your brain examined and while you’re at it kick a pile of rocks. Anyways, now that that is out of the way, let us get to a little preview and all my plays for the weekend.
Played at the most beautiful golf course in the world at Georgia’s own Augusta National, the Masters is the best golf tournament ever created and it isn’t even up for debate. For those who don’t know I will give a little rundown of what to expect at Augusta. Augusta National is a lengthy par 72 course measuring just shy of 7,500 yards featuring bent grass greens, a lot of dogleg and narrow fairways and multiple signature holes featuring risk/reward type shots. Though it seems like an easy course due to the fact that it doesn’t have much rough parlay’d with the fact that the par 5’s are for the taking, that has never been the case unless you are Dustin Johnson who lit up Augusta back in November to the tune of a -20 setting a new tournament record. Like I said last time I wrote this blog in November, as you know the Masters is the only major golf championship that is played at the same venue every year so historically Augusta favors players who have good history and knowledge of the course. That mixed in with the Masters not allowing green-reading books for the caddies, experience is key at Augusta and it shows as only three newcomers have ever won the Masters in its 87-year history.
Now to dive into my picks!
Full disclaimer, I took a lot of these bets a while ago so the odds may be a little inflated as which I will I state before hand. For my picks I am mainly going off current form and masters experience but will dive into certain stats if necessary.
2021 Golf Schedule: (+22.95U)
- Sentry Tournament of Champions (+3.5U)
- Sony Open (-8U)
- American Express Open (-3.4U)
- Farmers Insurance Open (-8.5U)
- Waste Management Phoenix Open (-9.5U)
- AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (+23U)
- Genesis Invitational (+0.55U)
- WGC Workday Championship (+38.75U)
- Arnold Palmer Invitational (-8.5U)
- Players Championship (+29.75U)
- Honda Classic (-13.5U)
- WGC Match Play (-19.75U)
- Valero Texas Open (-1.45U)
The * means I took these months ago hence the inflated odds.
Tier 1 (Two Favorites)
- Xander Schauffele +2000 (3U to win 60U) *
The X-Man is due and I believe Augusta is the place for him to finally get his first major championship. Coming into this week in fantastic form seeing himself rank 5th in the Fed Ex cup standings with five Top 5 finishes (3 of those being 2nd place) and 9 Top 25’s in 12 total tournaments, you could say the man is feeling himself at the perfect time. Schauffele is one of the most complete players on the tour in terms of statistics coming in ranking within the top 40 in every statistical category on the tour placing him 2nd in total strokes gained on the tour accompanied by his scoring, birdie, and eagle average all ranking within the top 8, the man fits every box you could possibly want. Schauffele has also had good success at the Masters as well going 3 for 3 on cuts made with a tie for 2nd in 2019, which leads me to believe he will contend here once again. Again this is one of those I took back in January but if you can get him anywhere +1500 or more, I suggest laying the juice.
2. Patrick Cantlay +2600 (1.5U to win 39U) *
Another guy in unreal form right now, the stars seem to be aligning for Patrick Cantlay. Coming into the week ranked 3rd in the Fed Ex cup standings with a win, three Top 5 finishes and 8 Top 25’s in 11 total tournaments, Cantlay is coming into this weekends Masters ready to roll. Like Schauffele, Cantlay is statistically one of the most complete players on the Tour coming in ranked within the top 50 in every category placing him 4th in total strokes gained on the entire PGA Tour. Cantlay also has the ability to go low at any given opportunity ranking 4th in birdie average on the PGA Tour which leads me to believe Cantlay is a severe threat to win this weekend. Coming in with a 66.7% made cut percentage at Augusta with a T9 and T17 in the last two seasons, I believe his recent success here along with his current form will propel him to contention come Sunday. Love the juice here at anything over +2000.
Tier 2 (Value Plays)
- Tony Finau +3500 (1.5U to win 52.5U) *
Another form and history play here, Finau is playing the best golf of his career at the right time. Listen, I know the guy hasn’t won in 5+ years but you have to believe it’s going to come sooner or later, it just has to. Coming into the weekend ranked 10th in the Fed Ex cup standings with 5 top 10’s and 2 2nd place finishes, Finau is in terrific form in search of his first major championship. Finau is another guy who comes into this week high up on every statistical category landing him 10th in total strokes gained on the PGA Tour. Where I am most intrigued by Finau is his 11th, 15th, and 8th ranked eagle, birdie, and scoring average(in order) on the PGA Tour. Like Schauffele, Finau is also 3 for 3 on cuts made at Augusta with a T5, T10, and T38 last season. Love the odds here on the big hitting Finau and if you can get him at anything over +2500, I’d personally pull the trigger.
2. Jordan Spieth +3900 (1.5U to win 58.5U) *
The man is BACK. The entire PGA Tour should be shaking in their boots cause the golden child found his mojo again and thats a bad sign for his competitors. The resurrection of Spieth has come at the perfect time and his form couldn’t be more impeccable since the Waste Management Open. In the last two months all the man has done is make all 7 of his cuts, win the Valero Texas Open, finish in the top 5 three separate times and most importantly it looks like he is thoroughly enjoying himself again. The stats aren’t great separately but altogether Spieth comes into the weekend ranked 28th in total strokes gained on the PGA tour. Making all 7 of his cuts at Augusta with a win in 2015 along 2 other separate T2 finishes and a solo third back in 2018, there is a reason he is now one of the betting favorites hovering around +1100. I personally wouldn’t take him at +1100 but if for some reason you can still get him at +1500 or more, I’d highly consider jumping on board.
3. Daniel Berger +4200 (1.5U to win 63U) *
Vibes = activated. DB comes into the weekend in solid form ranking 15th in the Fed Ex cup standings making 10 of 11 cuts with a win, 4 top 10’s and 7 top 25’s. Berger’s stats are the most intriguing part to me, like Spieth his stats are average to above average altogether but he ranks 20th on the tour in total strokes gained and 18th in total ball striking. Berger also ranks within the top 20 in birdie, eagle, and scoring average which leads me to believe he has what it takes to be in contention this weekend. Though Berger hasn’t competed since 2018 at Augusta, he has made all 3 of his cuts with a T10 in his debut in 2016. Really like the odds here on Danny Berger and if you can get him at anything over +3500, I’d pull the trigger.
4. Webb Simpson +4300 (1.5U to win 64.5U) *
Another guy in great form right now, Simpson comes into this weekend making 10 of 11 cuts on the season with 4 top 10’s and 7 top 25’s. On top of that, Simpson is as consistent as they come and in his last 3 attempts at Augusta he finished T20, T5, and T10. Like Spieth and Berger, Simpson is average to above average in basically every category but altogether ranks 16th in total strokes gained and 16th in ball striking on the PGA Tour. Simpson is one of the most accurate drivers on tour ranking 6th in driving accuracy which leads to his scoring average being 6th as well on the entire tour due to him rarely finding himself in a lot of trouble. If you can get Simpson at anything over +3500, I love the value.
Tier 3 (Two Longshots)
- Sergio Garcia +7000 (1.25U to win 87.5U)
Love this value here on Sergio. The Spaniard has had a career resurgence getting his first win since 2017, along making two thirds of cuts with 3 top 10’s and 5 top 15 finishes. Sergio found his groove again with the big stick ranking him 2nd on tour on strokes gained off the tee and vintage ball striking seeing himself rank 12th in that category as well. With his 10th ranked Tee to Green strokes gained alongside him ranking 2nd on tour in eagle average, Sergio should have a lot of success on Augusta’s risk/reward par 5’s. Winner here in 2017, Sergio has had an up and down career at Augusta two thirds of his cuts in 21 attempts with 3 top 10’s but I believe he has a real shot to win this weekend. These odds are way too good for a player of Sergio’s caliber and he keeps striking the ball like he has all season, I expect him to be right in the thick of things come Sunday.
2. Billy Horschel +8000 (1.25U to win 100U)
This is more of a form and gut feeling type of selection. Though Horschel hasn’t played great at Augusta in his career making 4 of 6 cuts with no higher than T17 back in 2016, I have a feeling he is going to fare better this time around. Billy Ho is also having a career resurgence coming in ranked 8th in the Fed Ex cup standings and 17th in the OWGR. Billy Ho’s form is top notch right now making 11 of 13 cuts with a win, a T2, and 4 Top 10 finishes. The stats don’t really back up Horschel but if you have been watching golf recently, you can tell the man is playing some of the best golf of his career and continues to grind day in and day out. This is a classic sprinkle longshot that if he makes the cut and is the hunt come moving day, it’s worth the small price to pay.
Prop Bet Time!!!
Not going to give a huge description on these, just a small summary.
Top 10/20 Finishes
- Matt Kuchar T10 +740 (1U to win 7.4U)
4 Top 10 finishes in 11 tries at Augusta + Kuchar is in solid form in the last couple weeks.
2. Adam Scott T20 +220 (1.25U to win 2.75U)
8 Top 20 finishes in 19 tries at Augusta win a victory in 2013 + Scott is 10 for 10 on cuts made this year thanks to his ball striking.
3. Bubba Watson T20 +310 (1.5U to win 4.65U)
5 Top 20 finishes in 12 tries at Augusta with two of those being victories + solid form making 70% of cuts this season due to spectacular tee to green skills.
4. Marc Leishman T20 +470
3 Top 20 finishes in 8 tries at Augusta + solid form making 9 of 13 cuts on the season with 4 Top 20’s including a T13 at Augusta back in November.