After a thrilling weekend at Augusta seeing Hideki Matsuyama capture the green jacket becoming Japan’s first male major champion, the PGA Tour heads down to South Carolina for the RBC Heritage. The RBC Heritage is played at the beautiful Pete Dye designed Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, South Carolina and plays to a Par 71 measuring a short 7,100 yards. Harbour Town is known for its narrow tree lined fairways and small greens leading to accuracy and GIR % playing a premium. For my picks this weekend we are going to focus mainly on approach to green strokes gained, GIR %, and Ball striking.
Now let’s dive into my picks!
On a little bit of a cold streak after a red hot February-March, but we still roll on! No matter how hot or cold we get we will be betting every single golf tournament for the rest of the season so get over it!
2021 Golf Schedule: (+11.9U)
- Sentry Tournament of Champions (+3.5U)
- Sony Open (-8U)
- American Express Open (-3.4U)
- Farmers Insurance Open (-8.5U)
- Waste Management Phoenix Open (-9.5U)
- AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (+23U)
- Genesis Invitational (+0.55U)
- WGC Workday Championship (+38.75U)
- Arnold Palmer Invitational (-8.5U)
- Players Championship (+29.75U)
- Honda Classic (-13.5U)
- WGC Match Play (-19.75U)
- Valero Texas Open (-1.45U)
- The Masters (-11.05U)
*Only playing one tier this week as I feel like on of the favorites is destined to win this weekend*
Tier 1 (Three Favorites)
1. Daniel Berger +1900 (2U to win 38U)
Even after a surprise missed cut last weekend at the Masters, Berger is still in great form on the season. Making 10 of 12 cuts with a win, 4 Top 10’s, and 7 Top 25 finishes so far on the season, DB is strait vibin seeing himself rank top 20 in both Fed Ex Cup and OWGR standings. Berger has had a solid history at Harbour Town making all 3 of his cuts on his attempts with a T3 just last season. Where we really focus in on Berger is his ball striking, GIR % and birdie average all ranking within the top 20 on the PGA tour which also ranks him 20th in total strokes gained on the tour. In a somewhat weak field, I really like Berger to contend here and would not be surprised in the slightest if he is putting on the Royal Tartan come Sunday night.
2. Tyrrell Hatton +2100 (1.75U to win 36.75U)
Though Hatton hasn’t played that well on the PGA tour this season, he’s still 8 for 11 on cuts made with 2 Top 10’s and 6 Top 25’s with 4 of those Top 25’s being in his last 5 starts, which is a good sign on where his form is at right now. Where I am most intrigued with Hatton are his 17th ranked strokes gained off the tee ranking and 10th ranked approach strokes gained statistics which lead him to a 21st overall rankings in total strokes gained on the PGA Tour. Like Berger, Hatton has fared well at Harbour Town and actually tied for 3rd place with Berger in the RBC Heritage just last season. In all, I really like the value here for the 8th ranked golfer in the world to at worst be in contention come Sunday.
3. Abraham Ancer +2700 (1.75U to win 47.25U)
I am calling it now, Abe Ancer will be a PGA Tour winner sooner rather than later and would not be surprised if it comes this weekend and or in the next few months. Coming into this weekend, Ancer is in excellent form as he is ranked 34th in the Fed Ex Cup standings making 13 of his 15 cuts with 2 top 10 and 9 top 25 finishes. Though the stats don’t totally back up Ancer as he is just about average to above average in every statistical category, he is still ranked 49th in total strokes gained on tour and is more appealing to the naked eye than you may be lead. Coming in ranked 2nd in driving accuracy and 14th in GIR % parlay’d with a 24th rank ball striking statistic, Ancer seems like the ideal fit for a course like Harbour Town. To solidify that claim, Ancer finished solo 2nd place at the RBC Heritage just last season and I have no doubt in my mind he has it in him again to make a run for the title.
Prop Bet Time!!!
Not going to give a huge description on these, just a small summary.
Top 20 Finishes:
1. Matt Kuchar T20 +230 (1.5U to win 3.45U)
Horse for course who actually has been playing solid golf of late to boot. 16 for 16 on cuts made at Harbour Town with a win, a solo 2nd, 6 Top 10’s and 10 Top 25’s.
2. Shane Lowry T20 +250 (1U to win 2.5U)
Above average ball striker who is in great form as of late. Really impressed with Lowry’s game the past two months and he finished T3 in one of his three attempts here in 2019.
3. Chris Kirk T20 +270 (1.5U to win 4.05U)
Great all around player who has really found himself in 2021 with rock solid accuracy and irons jolting him to 38th in the Fed Ex cup standings.
4. J.T Poston T20 +390 (1.5U to win 5.85U)
Another rock solid player in good form right now who is a wizard with the flat stick especially on these Bermuda greens. T6 and T8 in only two attempts at Harbour Town.
5. Stewart Cink T20 +430 (1.5U to 6.45U)
Top 10 ball striking who was already victorious this year. Ranked 2nd in GIR % on the PGA tour.
6) Matthew Nesmith T20 +440 (1.5U to win 6.6U)
Ranked 3rd in ball striking on PGA Tour. 8th in approach strokes gained and 1st on PGA Tour in GIR %. In good form as well of late.