After a year hiatus, the PGA Tour returns to the beautiful Innisbrook Golf Club’s Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Florida for the Valspar Championship. Though it plays to only a 7,300 yard par 71, Historically, the Copperhead Course has been very challenging in years past. The course features many tight tree-lined fairways with water throughout the entire course and multiple elevation changes with and abundance of bunkers and water hazards all over the place. The Copperhead Course is most notable for it’s last stretch of holes (16,17,18) which many refer to as “The Snake Pit” and it is often known as one the toughest closing sequence of holes on the PGA Tour. What makes the Copperhead Course so challenging is that the course features 5 Par 3’s with 4 of them being between 200-225 yards. With that being said, In years prior the winning number for the Valspar Championship has often been single digits and most likely anything -10 or better should be enough to take home the title. For this tournament we are going to focus mainly on Ball Striking, Strokes Gained Tee to Green, Birdie Average, and GIR % statistics as far as our picks go.
Now let’s dive into the picks!
2021 Golf Schedule: (+14.6U)
- Sentry Tournament of Champions (+3.5U)
- Sony Open (-8U)
- American Express Open (-3.4U)
- Farmers Insurance Open (-8.5U)
- Waste Management Phoenix Open (-9.5U)
- AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (+23U)
- Genesis Invitational (+0.55U)
- WGC Workday Championship (+38.75U)
- Arnold Palmer Invitational (-8.5U)
- Players Championship (+29.75U)
- Honda Classic (-13.5U)
- WGC Match Play (-19.75U)
- Valero Texas Open (-1.45U)
- The Masters (-11.05U)
- RBC Heritage (+7.95U)
- Zurich Classic (-5.25U)
Tier 1 (Three Mid Range Value Plays)
- Abraham Ancer +3100 (1.75U to win 54.25U)
I said it a few weeks back for the RBC Heritage and I’ll say it again, Ancer is going to be a winner this year on the PGA Tour. The man is just too talented to not get a win at some point and the way his form is right now, I think it’s going to come real soon. Coming into the weekend ranked 22nd on Tour in total ball striking, 13th in GIR %, and 29th in Birdie Average, Ancer checks all the boxes were looking at this week. Though Ancer’s Tee to Green strokes gained is only ranked 44th on the Tour, Ancer is the 3rd most accurate player off the tee which leads me to believe that on a tougher course his bend don’t break mentality will play. Making 14 of 16 cuts with 10 Top 25 finishes this season, I really like Ancer to be in the hunt come Sunday and this value is too good to pass up on.
2) Joaquin Niemann +3100 (1.75U to win 54.25U)
This play is the one that makes the most sense this weekend. Niemann is unreal form coming into the Valspar Championship making all 14 of his cuts and ranking 16th in the Fed Ex Cup standings with two 2nd place finishes and 9 Top 25 finishes. Form aside, Niemann comes into this weekend ranked 14th in total strokes gained Tee to Green, 3rd in total ball striking, 8th in GIR %, and 5th in Birdie average on the entire PGA Tour. Another guy that I believe is destined for victory this year as well, I love the value this weekend for the young Chilean.
3) Jason Kokrak +3500 (1.5U to win 52.5U)
Horse for the course play here who is in spectacular form to boot, this value is too good to pass up on. Coming into this weekend ranked 23rd in the Fed Ex Cup standings with a win, 4 top 10’s and 13 of 16 cuts made, Kokrak is playing some of the best golf of his career right now. Kokrak also seems to love the Copperhead Course as in his last 6 attempts here he has 4 top 15’s and a tie 2nd in the last time the tournament was played in 2019. Kokrak also fits the bill for us this weekend coming in ranked 8th in total ball striking, 24th in GIR %, 22nd in Birdie Average, and 46th in total strokes gained Tee to Green. Kokrak also comes in ranked 21st in total strokes gained putting which is the cherry on the cake for me to play him here this weekend.
Prop Bet Time!!!
Not going to give a huge description on these, just a small summary.
Top 20 Finishes:
- Emiliano Grillo T20 +200 (1.75U to win 3.5U)
2nd ranked Ball Striker on PGA Tour in great form as of late with 5 top 20’s in last 12 starts. Also 2nd in GIR %.
2) Charley Hoffman T20 +200 (1.5U to win 3U)
Good ball striker who is 8 for his last 8 on cuts made with 3 top 10’s and 6 top 20’s.
3) Ryan Palmer T20 +210 (1.5U to win 3.15U)
Another supreme ball striker in great form making 13 straight cuts with 9 top 20 finishes. Also 19th in GIR %, 3rd in Eagle Average, and 18th in Birdie Average on Tour.
4) Keegan Bradley T20 +300 (1.5U to win 4.5U)
Top tier ball striker with a 10th ranked strokes gained Tee to Green statistic. In good form making 7 straight cuts.
5) Kevin Kisner T20 +340 (1.25U to win 4.25U)
Too good of a player for these odds on a Top 20 finish. Form hasn’t been great but Kisner is still very accurate off the tee and the putter is top tier.
6) Martin Laird T20 +490 (1U to win 4.9U)
Another good ball striker in solid form.