Currently writing the long-winded, nerdy, statistically correct blog for another site, but the Basement is where next level data processing and decision making happen 24/7. Buckle for this month-long tournament. The summer of international footy is here. Quick update on the groups for this tournament that kicks off Friday at 3pm with Italy playing Turkey (country, not the thanksgiving staple)
Quick overview on the betting favorites:
Ok so those are the favorites. Personally, I love England but they are gonna find away to blow it. They are the the Toronto Maple Leafs, Nee York Yankees (bums), and Dallas Cowboys of international soccer. I want them to be good though cause they are savages and are easily the 1st team I’d choose to party with. Might throw a tiny play on them, but +500 isn’t very enticing for an English team that isn’t a runaway favorite.
Italy and Belgium have tasty value based on the route they’ll get to the finals, unfortunately they’ll meet before the finals, but these two are nice picks at +600 and +800
France were a wagon, and now they add Karim Benzema back to national team after his blackmailed attempted (allegedly) of a former teammate with a sex tape (long story). Like in any sport though, it’s hard to repeat winning major championships. I like them more than England, but keep in mind these players now have to adjust to playing with Benzema (speaking of Benzema, I’m taking him to be France’s top goal scorer at +300).
Denmark and Turkey are my dark horses to win this tournament. Definitely throw futures on these team making the quarterfinals if you don’t want to take the chance of them winning it all (+120 and +250). Turkey are going to be underdogs in a majority of their group games, so ride them. They are like that MLB team that got hot in late July through September. You don’t want to face them!
Teams that we are FADING in this tournament are the following: Hungary, Finland, North Macedonia, Slovakia, and the Netherlands depending on their opponent. I also don’t love Germany based on them being in the Group of Death, so fade them against France and Portugal.
I’ve never been a huge futures guy, and soccer is such a hit or miss game with player props, so apologies if I didn’t give out enough futures.
I’ll have daily boards for games from first kick Friday til the final on July 11th. This is the real European world tour big board.
As always, kick it easy.