My College Football Magnum Opus Pt.4 of 11 (Big 12 South Division + Conference Champ)

While there isn’t a technical split division like there is in the B1G (East vs West) the Big 12 is now a round robin tournament with the top two teams in the conference facing off in the Championship game.  They used to be split North/South, but with the departure of Nebraska and Colorado, the game was on pause until it was renewed back in the 2016 season.  While I know there isn’t technically a “South” division in the Big 12, for purposes of not putting a whole conference in one blog.  With all that being said, lets take a look at my pseudo South division last year standings :

TEAM	CONF	OVR
Oklahoma	6-2	9-2
Texas	5-3	7-3
TCU	5-4	6-4
Texas Tech	3-6	4-6
Baylor	2-7	2-7

Oklahoma

Who would’ve thought that after starting the season 1-2 with back-to-back losses to Kansas State and Iowa State, this team would go on to rattle off their next 7 conference wins and a blowout win vs Florida in the Bowl Game (with half of Florida’s key players missing FYI).  Otherwise, Rattler is continuing the tradition of OU QB’s being successful in College Football, however, will this be the year he continues the tradition of also winning a Heisman?  Natty?  Lets chat.  Spencer Rattler started off last season with 5 picks in his first 4 games prior to being benched in the Texas game midway through.  However, finished with only 2 picks in his last 7.  D1 football is a different game and it appears to took Spencer a few games to get comfortable.  While I think he will be GREAT this year, I don’t think he’ll win the Heisman or the Natty this year.  Regarding previous Heisman preseason favorites, only one Preseason favorite has won it since 2000 (Mariota), also 8 of the past 10 winners weren’t even in the Preseason Top 10 (source : saturdaydownsouth.com).  We’ll have our own separate Heisman blog, but back to OU – lets look at the ’21 schedule and losses/transfers :

Key Losses :

Humprhey/Ealy OL – NFL

Pledger RB – Transfer to Utah

Charleston Rambo WR – Transfer to Miami

Radley-Hiles CB – Transfer to Utah

2021-22 Schedule :

Regular Season
DATE	OPPONENT
Sat, Sep 4	@Tulane
Sat, Sep 11	vsWestern Carolina
Sat, Sep 18	vsNebraska
Sat, Sep 25	vsWest Virginia
Sat, Oct 2	@Kansas State
Sat, Oct 9	vsTexas *
Sat, Oct 16	vsTCU
Sat, Oct 23	@Kansas
Sat, Oct 30	vsTexas Tech
Sat, Nov 13	@Baylor
Sat, Nov 20	vsIowa State
Sat, Nov 27	@Oklahoma State

Opening conference play with the 50^th anniversary of the “Game of the Century” will be great to watch.  The schedule itself favors OU as they get ISU, Tech, & TCU at home, where with a full stadium it will be hard to overcome for their opponents.  BUT I want to state, this is a very young team, for good reason though.  A number of their players either transferred out or are good enough to leave for the NFL early.  I think Lincoln will be okay with the roster as he’s done in years past.  While I see them starting 3-0 to start the season easily, this still is the Big 12 where points are a plenty – can Rattler keep the offense ahead and not turn the ball over?  We’ll see.

Texas

Hook em’ baby!!!  Growing up, this was the program to be.  Year in, year out they were National Title contenders and consistently getting great recruits, finishing the year strong, and overall good teams under Mack Brown.  Then…. He was fired and they’ve find that footing ever since.  The Tom Herman experiment didn’t go well, as so was the case with his predecessors either.  Even after leaving Texas, I don’t think anyone they brought in, had much success thereafter, is Texas cursed?  So what’s the best way to break a curse, well if you answered go hire Steve Sarkisian as your new HC, you’re in luck.  Dude has lot of highs and lows in his coaching career, but you can’t say the guy doesn’t know his football.  Will be interesting to see him back in the HC position and how the team reacts.  Fun fact, all of Texas’s Big 12 games last year were decided by one score, outside of wins against Baylor and Kansas State.

Key Losses:

Sam Ehlinger QB – NFL

Samuel Cosmi OT – NFL

Caden Sterns S – NFL

Chris Brown S – NFL

Joseph Ossai OLB

2021-22 Schedule :

Regular Season
DATE	OPPONENT
Sat, Sep 4	vsLouisiana
Sat, Sep 11	@Arkansas
Sat, Sep 18	vsRice
Sat, Sep 25	vsTexas Tech
Sat, Oct 2	@TCU
Sat, Oct 9	vsOklahoma *
Sat, Oct 16	vsOklahoma State
Sat, Oct 30	@Baylor
Sat, Nov 6	@Iowa State
Sat, Nov 13	vsKansas
Sat, Nov 20	@West Virginia
Fri, Nov 26	vsKansas State

One of my favorite things about college football is seeing a team with a QB that played multiple seasons graduate and the newcomer/successor is named.  You never know what you’re going to get from this individual – are they going to go off or be a complete dud?  Well, in Texas’s case it looks like Freshman QB Hudson Card is going to get the nod this year.  The schedule though is going to be… something.  Arkansas won’t be an easy win and for a non-conference week 2 game, should be interesting.  At Iowa State and TCU is going to be difficult, but in reality, again it comes down to how these FR at QB performs.  Whether it’s Card (or possibly Casey Thompson) it’s who can get comfortable with a Sarkisian offense, they will have the time they need with the threat in the backfield of Bijan Robinson who was a beast last year.  Let’s see Steve come and implement his offense in a conference that seems to fit his style he’s used previously.

TCU

Shoutout to @statsowar on Twitter as he knows more about TCU football than anyone I’ve ever met so I’ve seen a lot of great info on the feed and hope to say I’ve done a tenth of the research @statsowar has.  Let’s start with the player that will have the most impact on this 2021 team – Max Duggan.  Led the team in Rushing/Passing last year, albeit with injuries plaguing last year’s season.  Gary Patterson enters his 21^st year coaching the Horned Frogs and with a ton of returning talent – this is a team to watch out for in the Big 12.  Before we hop into their outlook, let’s see whats coming on the schedule and departures from last year.

Key Losses:

Eze LT – Transfer

Both leading TE’s from 2020

Wallow/Moehrig LB

Washington S – NFL

2021-22 Schedule :

Regular Season
DATE	OPPONENT
Sat, Sep 4	vsDuquesne
Sat, Sep 11	vsCalifornia
Sat, Sep 25	vsSMU
Sat, Oct 2	vsTexas
Sat, Oct 9	@Texas Tech
Sat, Oct 16	@Oklahoma
Sat, Oct 23	vsWest Virginia
Sat, Oct 30	@Kansas State
Sat, Nov 6	vsBaylor
Sat, Nov 13	@Oklahoma State
Sat, Nov 20	vsKansas
Fri, Nov 26	@Iowa State

Schedule doesn’t do any favors with AWAY games at OSU, ISU, OU, & Tech but the non-conference schedule isn’t as difficult as other members of the Big 12 even with SMU thrown in there.  Regardless, this is Duggan’s team – they finished strong last year winning 5 of their last 6, the offense found their groove as they led the Big 12 in Rushing last year and appear to be scheduled to do the same this year with only one RB transferring out.  Even though they’re in the known ‘pass happy/no defense’ Big 12, this conference is transforming as Defense is becoming more of a staple of these top teams as these offense heavy programs may win the conference but will get destroyed in the CFP if not balanced.  This team controls the ball, has experience at the HC position, locked in starter at QB and a great tandem of RB’s.  I love this team and what their ceiling is.  The defense lost some key players, but Patterson has the depth to fill those holes moving forward.  Watch out for Duggan and the Horned Frogs this year.

Texas Tech

You know how there is the Mendoza line in Baseball (hitting .200) – well I feel like there should be a Tech line.  If Tech can put up 30+ you’re secondary needs some help or vice versa.  While this team to spread it out, their offense is wildly inconsistent, thus the Tech line.  I mean, how do you go from putting up 56 against Texas (granted it was an OT game) to putting up 16 at home against KANSAS?  I understand injuries happen, COVID happened, etc. but I feel like this is the case year in year out for the past few years.  Anyways, lets see what 2021 will hold for us this ‘Guns Up’ team.

Key Losses:

Bowman QB – Transfer

Carter WR – Transfer

Howard DL – Graudated

2021-22 Schedule:

Regular Season
DATE	OPPONENT
Sat, Sep 4	vsHouston *
Sat, Sep 11	vsStephen F. Austin
Sat, Sep 18	vsFlorida International
Sat, Sep 25	@Texas
Sat, Oct 2	@West Virginia
Sat, Oct 9	vsTCU
Sat, Oct 16	@Kansas
Sat, Oct 23	vsKansas State
Sat, Oct 30	@Oklahoma
Sat, Nov 13	vsIowa State
Sat, Nov 20	vsOklahoma State
Sat, Nov 27	@Baylor

Long story, short.  It’s going to be a long year for the Red Raiders this year.  On the bright side of things, it looks like Oregon transfer Shough will take over the reigns from Bowman at QB – and he was an above average QB in the Pac 12.  Otherwise, the schedule starts off conference play with two straight road games at Texas and WVU, for a young QB, young HC, and inconsistent offense, I can see that getting off to a slow start could really be a detriment for the team mentality for the remainder of the season.  I do think they’ll strive back to the true threat of the spread and putting up 50+ a game, however, as I mentioned above – the Big 12 is transforming before our eyes and is no longer the “pass happy/no defense” conference it’s shown to be the last 5-7 years.

Baylor

So after a year removed from being in the Sugar Bowl against Georgia, the Baylor Bears finished the 2020 season at 2-7.  Don’t let this record fool you though, after starting the year by crushing Kansas at home, they lose in OT to WVU, lose by 11 at Texas, 10 to TCU, 7 at ISU… etc you get the point.  This team was in these games but it just didn’t go their way in the long run.  One item you could call out to this team’s performance was new Head Coach Dave Aranda implanting a new offense/defensive schemes without one day of Spring Ball.  While I think year 2 will help, we’ll see what the season provides us.  Brand new QB, with an open competition should keep things interesting.

Key Losses :

Charlie Brewer QB – Transfer

2021-22 Schedule:

Regular Season
DATE	OPPONENT
Sat, Sep 4	@Texas State
Sat, Sep 11	vsTexas Southern
Sat, Sep 18	@Kansas
Sat, Sep 25	vsIowa State
Sat, Oct 2	@Oklahoma State
Sat, Oct 9	vsWest Virginia
Sat, Oct 16	vsBYU
Sat, Oct 30	vsTexas
Sat, Nov 6	@TCU
Sat, Nov 13	vsOklahoma
Sat, Nov 20	@Kansas State
Sat, Nov 27	vsTexas Tech

As you can see above, their “tough” games are all at home, however, with a second year head coach, uncertainty at the QB position, and an overall tough conference – I think it’s going to be a tough year for the Bears upcoming.  That being said, the future is bright for this team and coach.  They’re young, they have the recruits, and have shown in the past they can overcome downfalls and be a consistent top team in the Big 12.  Unfortunately, I just don’t see that being this year with some uncertainties across the board and a better than usual Big 12.

Final Big 12 Conference Prediction / Championship Game

TEAM	CONF	OVR
Oklahoma	7-2	10-2
TCU	7-2	10-2
Iowa State	6-3	8-4
Texas	6-3	8-4
Kansas State	5-4	8-4
Oklahoma State	5-4	7-5
West Virginia	5-4	7-5
Texas Tech	2-7	5-7
Baylor	2-7	5-7
Kansas	0-9	0-12

Big 12 Championship Game

Oklahoma vs TCU

Winner : Oklahoma

Love Duggan and experience all round with TCU but I think OU talent is just enough to inch by in the Big 12 championship game.

Kansas is a lost cause and I don’t see them winning this year.

Baylor/Texas Tech are rebuilding and will be good, just not this year.

KSU/OSU/WVU are solid teams that can pull off an upset here or there throughout the season but not quite ready to be at the top of this group of teams.

Texas has a good FR QB but I could be way off on this, I just have faith in the new/improved Sarkisian and I feel he’s in the right system at Texas

ISU had a hell of a year last year, but will no longer come in as an underdog and with a target on their back takes a slight step back this year.

Let me know what you think of my takes and conference prediction for the Big 12 and as always.  Lets. Eat. – YB