After a year hiatus due to the COVID-19, we find ourselves in Kent, England at the beautiful Royal St. George’s Golf Club for the return of the Open Championship. Returning here for the first time since 2011 when fan favorite Darren Clarke turned in a 275 (-5) to take home the Claret Jug, this weekend’s Open should be extremely fun. Though the length won’t necessarily intimidate the golfers at only 7,200 yards, Open Championship links style golf courses are historically the hardest types of courses in the world, especially when weather is a factor. As far as what stats will play this weekend, it is hard to determine that but we are mainly going to just focus on approach, ball striking, and around the green statistics with a few others mixed in. Basically, you are going to just have to trust me as usually in Open Championship’s the unexpected happens.
Through 26 tournaments we are having a really solid season as long as you stuck around through the up’s and down’s.
2021 Golf Schedule: (+38.6U)
- Sentry Tournament of Champions (+3.5U)
- Sony Open (-8U)
- American Express Open (-3.4U)
- Farmers Insurance Open (-8.5U)
- Waste Management Phoenix Open (-9.5U)
- AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (+23U)
- Genesis Invitational (+0.55U)
- WGC Workday Championship (+38.75U)
- Arnold Palmer Invitational (-8.5U)
- Players Championship (+29.75U)
- Honda Classic (-13.5U)
- WGC Match Play (-19.75U)
- Valero Texas Open (-1.45U)
- The Masters (-11.05U)
- RBC Heritage (+7.95U)
- Zurich Classic (-5.25U)
- Valspar Championship (-3U)
- Wells Fargo Championship (+35U)
- Byron Nelson Championship (-3.75U)
- PGA Championship (-13.7U)
- Charles Schwab Challenge (-8U)
- Memorial Tournament (-4.45U)
- U.S Open (-20.6U)
- Travelers Championship (+56U)
- Rocket Mortgage Classic (-7.5U)
- John Deere Classic (-6U)
Have been taking a bunch of these throughout the year so the odd’s may be all over the place
Tier 1 (Favorites)
- Justin Thomas +1800 (3U to win 54U)*
Coming off a T8 finish at the the Scottish Open, the final tune up before the Open championship, Thomas seems to be in good form in search of his 2nd Major Championship. Thomas fits the bill to the tee (no pun intended) this weekend by ranking 5th in approach strokes gained and 13th in strokes gained around the green. I’ve seen Thomas as high as +3000 on some books which is insane to me but I would honestly still feel comfortable pulling the trigger on him at anything +1600 or higher. I truly believe Thomas will be in the hunt come Sunday as he has always fared well overseas and is just in general, a major championship horse.
2. Bryson Dechambeau +1900 (3U to win 56U)*
This one I am not as confident in as for his recent play but I took it a while back so I’m just going to roll with it. You know what your getting with Dechambeau and I’m not entirely sure it is going to work at Royal St George’s this weekend, but with that being said if he can find himself not in too much trouble I do think the big hitting Dechambeau has a chance to contend come Sunday. The stats don’t totally back him up but Dechambeau comes in ranked 1st in strokes gained off the tee and 5th in total strokes gained. The only problem with Dechambeau this week is his 1st ranked eagle average won’t really come into play as Royal St George’s only offers two par 5’s but I’ve seen him as high as +2500 on some books and I feel like you’d have to be an idiot not to play him at those odds.
3. Rory Mcilroy +2300 (2.5U to win 57.5U)
This one I just have a weird feeling about. Rory just seems way overdue to get another Major Championship and I truly believe this is the week he gets it done. The man is way too talented to not be a major champion once more and is quietly having a terrific 2021 season seeing himself victorious and ranked 25th in the Fed Ex Cup standings. Like Bryson, you know what you are getting with Rory but I believe Rory has the rest of the game to play well this weekend, that and the fact that Rory has a good track history with Open Championship’s making 9 of 11 cuts with five Top 5’s and a victory back in 2014. I love Rory this week and really do think he should be the betting favorite and to get him anywhere near +2000 seems like an absolute steal.
Tier 2 (Value plays)
- Patrick Reed +4000 (3U to win 120U)*
This play I love. Patrick Reed’s game is built for Links style courses and though it hasn’t shown throughout the years, I think this could be his breakthrough. Ranking 14th in strokes gained around the green, 9th in putting strokes gained, and 7th in sand percentage saved, Reed’s game screams European Tour. On top of that the man is in great form coming into this weekend ranked 20th in the Fed Ex Cup standings. Love the odds this week on Reed to capture his 2nd Major Championship and I’d honestly feel safe playing him at anything +3000 or better.
2. Jordan Spieth +6000 (1.5U to win 90U)*
Another play I took back at February and boy am I happy I did. Spieth’s game is built for links golf as he comes in ranked 19th in approach strokes gained, 8th in strokes gained around the green, and 34th in putting strokes gained. Aside from that, the golden child is arguably one of the best Major Championship horses around right now, on par with Brooks Koepka and Spieth’s history in Open Championship’s is immaculate. Making 8 of 8 cuts with a victory, three top 10’s, and a another top 20, Spieth knows his way around links golf. Most books have him at around +2000 and honestly I’d still consider taking him at those odds because I truly believe he has one of the best chances to win this thing.
3. Matthew Fitzpatrick +6000 (1.5U to win 90U)*
Another one I took back in February and I feel very good about. Fitzpatrick PGA stats won’t back him up this week but the man is a European Tour beast. Fitzpatrick Open Championship history hasn’t been great but the 26 year old Englishmen is already a 6 time European Tour winner since debuting in 2015 and is coming off a T2 finish in last weeks Scottish Open in which he lost in a playoff. Again you are going to just have to trust me with this one but honestly, unless you can get him around +3500/+4000 I probably wouldn’t bother taking as I’ve seen his odds all over the place.
4. Viktor Hovland +6000 (2.75U to win 165U)*
Get the trend here? Another one I took months ago, Hovland might be one of my favorite plays this weekend. Though he is making his Open Championship debut this weekend, Hovland is coming off a stellar victory overseas at the BMW International Open just two weeks ago while also ranking 7th in the PGA Tour Fed Ex Cup rankings so one might say the form is there right now. Known for his ball striking which ranks 17th on the PGA Tour, Hovland also comes in ranked 6th in strokes gained off the tee and 2nd in birdie average on the PGA Tour which leads me to believe his game should play this weekend. Listen I know I got great odds on him but even If you can get him around +3000, I’d still pull the trigger on the young Norwegian.
Tier 3 (Longshots)
- Webb Simpson +13000 (1.25U to win 162.5U)*
Not going to lie, I don’t know how I sniped this one but It happened and I am thrilled to be holding this ticket. Honestly, I’m not even going to bother trying to talk you into this one because most books have him at +5000/+6000 and I personally wouldn’t take him at those odds. But hey if you can get him at like anything +8000 or better I’d pull the trigger in a heartbeat because the man is way too talented to get those odds.
2. Francesco Molinari +14000 (1.5U to win 215U)
Another one I won’t really be able to convince you on but the 2018 Open Champion has the ideal game for links golf. Molinari is a wizard with his wedges and he put it on display back in 2018 at Carnoustie en route to his first Major Championship. You are going to just have to trust me on this one because this man is way to good of a European Tour golfer to get these kind of odds and though the odds are all over the place, he is easily worth a unit sprinkle at anything +10000 or better.
3. Stewart Cink +22000 (1U to win 220U)
This is a true longshot. The 48 year old 2009 Open Champion is in the midst of a career resurgence finding himself in the winners circle not once, but twice this season en route to a 15th ranking in the Fed Ex Cup standings. The stats won’t really back this one up because I mean I wouldn’t expect someone with +22000 odds to be statistical enticing but Cink is just a classic ball striker. Ranking 20th in that category and 21st in approach strokes gained, you know what your getting, just a good iron player. Cink is worth a sprinkle at anything over +20000 as he has proven he can win on a links course.
4. Matt Kuchar +25000 (1U to win 250U)
Kuchar has an ideal old school style of golf that works on links golf courses. Hit it straight (35th in driving accuracy) and be consistent with your short game, as Kuchar ranks 37th in strokes gained around the green and 8th in sand save percentage which I believe is going to be a big factor this weekend. Listen, I got a feeling Kuchar makes the cut and could potentially be in the hunt come Sunday and that is really all you can ask for in someone at +25000 odds.
TOP 20 PLAYS!
- Brian Harman T20 +240 (1.25U to win 3U)
- Shane Lowry T20 +260 (1.75U to win 4.55U)
- Tommy Fleetwood T20 +270 (1.5U to win 4.05U)
- Rickie Fowler T20 +350 (1.5U to win 5.25U)
- Lee Westwood T20 +360 (1.25U to win 4.5U)
- Justin Rose T20 +380 (1.25U to win 4.75U)
- Marc Leishman T20 +390 (1.5U to win 5.85U)
- Guido Migliozzi T20 +500 (1.25U to win 6.25U)
- Francesco Molinari T20 +560 (1.25U to win 7U)
- Padraig Harrington T20 +640 (1.25U to win 8U)